GE2011 Results: Aljunied GRC - PAP vs WP (won)
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The GRC System was always designed to shackle and hinder the opposition from having any meaningful contest. Through repeated gerrymandering, this system ensures the opposition cannot have any meaningful say in the parliament regardless of the overall votes they secure because it does not work on a proportional representation basis. If it wasn't meant to ensure total fascist dominance, it was in place to at least ensure the erosion of its parliamentary presence was slowed.
However, the significance of this win is vital - as was proven when JBJ took down Anson in 1981, the fascist's complete hegemony was over. Hopefully, this signals the start of something similar for other GRC's in the years ahead. Doing it again is always easier than doing it the first time.
More importantly, this is sweet revenge for Francis Seow (Eunos in 1988), Mohamed Jufrie (Eunos in 1991), Tang Liang Hong and JBJ (Cheng San in 1997) - all running under WP - who all came within a whisker of winning a GRC albeit running against a bunch of thugs who campaigned on the basis of skullduggery, plain deception and intimidation in an era long before alternative sources of news were available as freely as they're today.
More importantly, a critical factor that is showing encouraging signs is the perpetual increase of popular votes for the opposition. While this is not necessarily translated into parliamentary seats, this trend should continue to persist with younger generations coming to the fore in 5 years' time (and subsequent elections thereafter) who are better exposed to alternative sources of media.
If this trend proves sustainable, then it is surely only a matter of time before the opposition makes even more significant inroads in terms of presence in parliament for it will simply be impossible, regardless of the extent of gerrymandering imposed, for the fascists to maintain its current level of dominance if its popular vote continues to dip - there is, after all, a fairly strong (albeit not a perfect) correlation.
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u r wrong. 40% of people vote for opposition. This is very alarming.
That show if the figure increase to 60%.We will have 2/3 or the opposition setting up government next election. If LKY passed away. Lagi worst. PAP MP dunno will switch camp a not or open their new opposition party.
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Originally posted by Itedino:
u r wrong. 40% of people vote for opposition. This is very alarming.
That show if the figure increase to 60%.We will have 2/3 or the opposition setting up government next election. If LKY passed away. Lagi worst. PAP MP dunno will switch camp a not or open their new opposition party.
What's wrong?That's my point. 40% voted for opposition (compared with 25% in 2001 and 34% in 2006). Is that not an increase?
For the sake of argument, suppose you had 100% voting for the opposition. Is it remotely possible the fascists could even win a single seat, regardless of how they gerrymander (it doesn't matter if you had a mega GRC of 87 v 87 or 87 SMC's)?
As mentioned earlier, the GRC system prevents the erosion of parliamentary seats for the fascists because this system does not ensure proportional parliamentary representation based on the popular vote.
Nevertheless, if the popular vote for the opposition continues to increase going forward in a similar way it has over the last decade, isn't it logical that the opposition can only win more seats in the future? All said and done, the opposition's parliamentary seats will still not be proportional to the popular vote because the correlation between these two aren't perfect - at best, they're moderately strong.
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Originally posted by walesa:
What's wrong?That's my point. 40% voted for opposition (compared with 25% in 2001 and 34% in 2006). Is that not an increase?
For the sake of argument, suppose you had 100% voting for the opposition. Is it remotely possible the fascists could even win a single seat, regardless of how they gerrymander (it doesn't matter if you had a mega GRC of 87 v 87 or 87 SMC's)?
As mentioned earlier, the GRC system prevents the erosion of parliamentary seats for the fascists because this system does not ensure proportional parliamentary representation based on the popular vote.
Nevertheless, if the popular vote for the opposition continues to increase going forward in a similar way it has over the last decade, isn't it logical that the opposition can only win more seats in the future? All said and done, the opposition's parliamentary seats will still not be proportional to the popular vote because the correlation between these two aren't perfect - at best, they're moderately strong.
I mean the whole singapore. What there to do with GRC? by that time 50% vote for Oppostion on the whole mean there is at least 3 GRC and some SMC lose. Forming 2/3 or 4-5 GRC to form new government.
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Originally posted by Itedino:
I mean the whole singapore. What there to do with GRC? by that time 50% vote for Oppostion on the whole mean there is at least 3 GRC and some SMC lose. Forming 2/3 or 4-5 GRC to form new government.
What makes you think so?For these elections, with just 82 seats contested, the fascists could theoretically retain all 82 seats with just 52% of the popular vote.
For the sake of argument, suppose the opposition had 50% of the popular vote at these elections, they could theoretically still win just 1 SMC (although this is the absolute worst-case scenario).
Don't believe? Analyse the following scenario:
1) The fascists win every single SMC/GRC by 1 vote bar 1 SMC. Essentially, from these 25 constituencies (14 GRC's + 11 SMC's), the opposition lose by a total of 25 votes.
2) In the single SMC won by the opposition, suppose they secure a victory margin of 25 votes. This effectively offsets the shortfall of 25 votes from 1) above.
Does this scenario not translate to a 50% popular vote for the opposition, yet just a single seat for the opposition?
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While the GRC is a breakthru for singapore election thanks to HDB politics.
but i am not sure it will changed anything....given that the hardcore folks such as MBT Wong KS, Vivian, and minister for cheaper , faster, betterer....Lim swee say still around infact this election result will not changed anything but allow the hardcore folks to consolidate their power within PAP.
From the entire elections....Singapore loose an entire opposition party in the parliment. Rather than having more voices in the parliment. Singapore also loose GY a key minister to advance Singapore interest as a country.
We can built more HDB on a sampan its still a Sampan.
Overall i thought Singaporean did Great in this election. It certainly go down the history book.
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Originally posted by walesa:
What makes you think so?For these elections, with just 82 seats contested, the fascists could theoretically retain all 82 seats with just 52% of the popular vote.
For the sake of argument, suppose the opposition had 50% of the popular vote at these elections, they could theoretically still win just 1 SMC (although this is the absolute worst-case scenario).
Don't believe? Analyse the following scenario:
1) The fascists win every single SMC/GRC by 1 vote bar 1 SMC. Essentially, from these 25 constituencies (14 GRC's + 11 SMC's), the opposition lose by a total of 25 votes.
2) In the single SMC won by the opposition, suppose they secure a victory margin of 25 votes. This effectively offsets the shortfall of 25 votes from 1) above.
Does this scenario not translate to a 50% popular vote for the opposition, yet just a single seat for the opposition?
what u say wun happen k? and for your info and get your facts right. There are total of 87 seats in parliament not 82.
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
While the GRC is a breakthru for singapore election thanks to HDB politics.
but i am not sure it will changed anything....given that the hardcore folks such as MBT Wong KS, Vivian, and minister for cheaper , faster, betterer....Lim swee say still around infact this election result will not changed anything but allow the hardcore folks to consolidate their power within PAP.
From the entire elections....Singapore loose an entire opposition party in the parliment. Rather than having more voices in the parliment. Singapore also loose GY a key minister to advance Singapore interest as a country.
We can built more HDB on a sampan its still a Sampan.
Overall i thought Singaporean did Great in this election. It certainly go down the history book.
Yes bro. I went to the Workers party rally just now. Worker party worker party Worker party. Hope they have plan for next election and address who will be the potential minister if they form the new government. -
Originally posted by Itedino:
what u say wun happen k? and for your info and get your facts right. There are total of 87 seats in parliament not 82.
You're plain deluded. If the parliamentary seats reflected anywhere near the popular vote, you should have approximately 33 opposition voted into parliament.For the record, the popular vote does not include the 5 uncontested seats. Did you not know that? So why are you factoring that into the popular vote?
And for the record, my example still holds if we assumed an 82-seat parliament. You could still end up with 81-1 in favour of the fascists.
What's your gripe behind the logic?
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Originally posted by Itedino:
Yes bro. I went to the Workers party rally just now. Worker party worker party Worker party. Hope they have plan for next election and address who will be the potential minister if they form the new government.WP is still a infant.....they still have to learn to walk...
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Thank you, Aljunied GRC for winning for the whole of Singapore!
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Aljunied GRC is a break throuhg. someone should eat his own words.
Marine parade a bloody fight, PP kaylong win, Hougang is a clear signal that people may not always want a change. looking at the results we see the pecentage of lightning team's wins going down year after year! its what we tell the gahmen after year after year of prices and foreign trashes goig up.
now we really have to look at the new immigrants. if more comes in and have the power of one vote each in tehir hands, oppositons wins can become vevn hard for future elections!
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40% of singaporeans voted for the opposition but PAP takes 81 out of 87 seats. Tks to the GRC system. You can be sure that PAP will think of more ways to perpetuate their political hegemony. They have about 700 polling stations this time round....new polling stations unheard of in GE 2006 have sprung up this election. So there you go, PAP have already planned long term.....see which cluster of blocks voted against them in more detail and then the usual gerrymeandering.
In fact, Aljunied GRC had 29,000 voters siphoned off to AMK GRC, so WP's margin might have been bigger had it not been for that.
Not bad huh, pay the elections dept big money to come up with creative ideas so that PAP stays in power.
So the 60% of you who have voted PAP, I hope the inflation, foreigners, and transport issues don't come back to bite you. Complain and complain but still root for the problem haha. In fact, let's wait and see. I don't think much will change. When politicians say they will listen to you, take it with a pinch of salt. What's more it's PAP in their ivory tower saying that lol.
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Ewww..The good minister is gone...
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At least a grc fall. But sadly PTPS fall.
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FXXX WP !!took over aljunied
.Aljunied area will turn into
"Slum Area very soon!!
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It looks like this could potentially be the start of the evolution of a 2 party system in Sg.
I foresee that the other opposition parties will not make too much inroads in terms of winning seats in parliament in the near future. The WP on the other hand has established itself as a brand name opposition party for now with this GRC win and the most logical thing is to continue growing from here onwards.
One, they should continue to attract better quality new candidates to grow the party. Two, they should consider talking to the better performers from other opposition parties in this election to entice them to join the WP. It's a win win situation for alternative parties.
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The biggest winners of last night are not Singaporeans, PAP nor WP. It's the foreigners! haha they must be so relieved they can continue to settle in here and purchase their property.
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a bunch of lawyers took over aljunied
so what do they have to offer to the residents?
Free legal service/
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Originally posted by Rock^Star:
The biggest winners of last night are not Singaporeans, PAP nor WP. It's the foreigners! haha they must be so relieved they can continue to settle in here and purchase their property.
If you analyse it, I think this was the best possible result for Singaporeans, Singapore, WP and PAP.
Singaporeans - more alternative voices in parliament. (vs zero opposition)
Singapore - little or no change in terms of foreign investments, economic fundamentals, life in general. (vs a shock result of losing say 25% of seats to opposition)
WP - continued growth of party.(vs zero opposition)
PAP - Minimal loss of just 1 GRC and 1 SMC. (vs shocking loss of 2 or more GRCs)
The incumbent party better start listening otherwise, they will lose more GRCs the next time round as even their heavyweight ministers like WKS, MBT, SM only managed mid 50% wins.
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The NCMP thing can be a good thing for opposition to showcase themselves. Just like it has done for slyvia lim the past 5 years.
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Originally posted by Rock^Star:
The NCMP thing can be a good thing for opposition to showcase themselves. Just like it has done for slyvia lim the past 5 years.
Some of the opposition candidates are still young and can afford to spend the next 5 years increasing their public profile and presence.
Take it as 5 years of on the job training as NCMP first.
If like SL, they can engage in debates logically and propose solutions, then come next election, they will have a chance of becoming elected as full MPs.
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Originally posted by noahnoah:
a bunch of lawyers took over aljunied
so what do they have to offer to the residents?
Free legal service/
A brunch of MIW took over Chua Chu Kang GRC and what do they offer?? Nothing...past 5 years I only saw my MP Zagy once which was 2 weeks before nomination day trying to get votes at Lot 1 macdonald. What have they done?? All the carrots come only when NSP comes and contest CCK GRC.
The more you say about WP the more happier I am to see George Yeo leaves and to add on people like LHH and CP as they forget that they have heart. That's why they lost.
BTW MM Lee was a lawyer also and did he offer free legal services at Tanjong Pagar??
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Anyway, all of you must have stayed tuned to last night's CNA. The reporting this time is more balanced than 2006. However, did you all notice a lot of repeats? The same interviews with the same people over and over again. And they ran out of ideas that they had to broadcast the repeat of the unrest in syria. Then Otelli Edwards touched on the hot issues of the GE...such as foreigners, cost of living, housing prices etc.....all very skin deep! Very superficial mention. No interviews of the people in the stadiums and streets either....I think they are afraid of "live" gaffes, something which may prove embarassing if someone says something unfriendly.
Somehow, I felt this was an insult to the singaporean's intelligence lol. Al Jazeera can do better anytime. The people in there must be either morons or yes men.
Oh what saved the night was the Returning Officer, Yam Ah Mee. He walked up to the rostrum 23 times in the same posture, same expression and same tone. "Pursuant to Section 49, Paragraph A......" hehehe. He's my hero.
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Originally posted by charlize:
Some of the opposition candidates are still young and can afford to spend the next 5 years increasing their public profile and presence.
Take it as 5 years of on the job training as NCMP first.
If like SL, they can engage in debates logically and propose solutions, then come next election, they will have a chance of becoming elected as full MPs.
This elections must be seen as a small step towards a better singapore. It also serves to showcase how united singaporeans actually are.
But for PAP, it is time for them to rethink about the GRC system.
1) GRCs are not inpenetrable
2) GRCs allows rubbish to get in, and people like george to get booted with ease (dunno what george has to say about TPL though)