http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southasia/view/184372/1/.htmlNICOBAR ISLANDS : As the world takes time out to remember the 290,000 victims of the December 26 tsunami that hit the region last year, some experts are already issuing a serious warning: Look ahead at what could happen next.
Of particular worry are the remarks made by Thai meteorologist and seismologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja.
In recent interviews, the Thai scientist has warned that the epicentre of the next earthquake would be further north than last year's temblors, which brings the Straits of Malacca and - more disturbingly - Singapore and Malaysia into range.
And Dr Dharmasaroja is not a man who should be ignored.
In 1998, he was the man who predicted that Thailand's Phuket island and the surrounding Andaman region was at risk.
At that time he was called a "rumour-monger" and a "madman", out to ruin the country's tourism industry.
Having sadly been proved right last December, he is now a vice-minister in the Office of the Prime Minister of Thailand, and has been tasked with putting in place early warning systems along the Andaman coastline.
Said the 70-year-old in an interview with TODAY: "We can only say, by historical data, that every 50, 80 or 100 years a big earthquake and tsunami will occur. This possibility is based on current seismological data.
"The latest data shows that the epicentre is moving north towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and if an earthquake takes place in this area, this would cause greater effects in the Straits of Malacca than what happened last year.
"If the epicentre continues to move north and a tsunami occurs, the wave will move towards the Straits of Malacca, which is narrow and shallow.
"This can cause great damage if early preparations are not taken."
He added that he recently concluded studies on such a possibility with other scientists.
"We have made the simulation tests, and now we need to look at the data to see the impact of a tsunami if an earthquake happens in the north, and, using this data, set up early warning systems."
Though he refuses to be drawn into predicting when such a tsunami will strike, Dr Dharmasaroja said that his studies are based on tsunami record data that stretches back for 200 years, which he has been analysing over the last 30 years.
"There have been 12 tsunamis in the last two centuries and the last big one before Dec 26 last year occurred in the Indian Ocean, created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano 122 years ago," he said.
"Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 to 100-year cycles. In 1941, there was an earthquake near the Nicobar Islands which measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one that was 7.2.
"Both of these had their epicentres north of the Dec 26 earthquake, east of Sumatra. Based on these records, we are due for another big earthquake in roughly the same area - and it could send waves surging through the Straits of Malacca which could smash into Malaysia and Singapore."
Associate Professor Dr David Higgitt of the National University of Singapore's geography department said that while there was no evidence to suggest that Singapore could be hit by a tsunami, he did agree that recent studies and data have shown that there was stress building up in the Nicobar Islands area.
He added that geophysicists in the United States are also studying the reasons behind the substantial move northwards. He also noted that there had been an earthquake at the Nicobar Islands in March, which triggered a minor tsunami.
"But for the Straits of Malacca to be hit by primary waves, it would have to be a huge earthquake," said Dr Higgitt.
He added that Dr Dharmasaroja's studies are based primarily on historical data and the huge assumption that a major earthquake would strike the Nicobar Islands.
Added Dr Higgitt: "I have not seen the data of the simulation tests and it would not be fair for me to comment until I do."
But until then, Dr Dharmasaroja is urging the governments of Malaysia and Singapore to take proper precautions, including setting up early warning systems.
Said the scientist, who was featured on the front page of The New Straits Times of Malaysia yesterday: "I don't want the Singaporean and Malaysian governments to make the mistakes which the Thai government made. The early warning system is something which they should seriously invest in because it will save a lot of lives.
"In fact, I've suggested to the Indonesian government that it should not allow any human habitation on the northern coast of Sumatra as these areas are prone to be hit."
But what can these countries do if something as big as the Dec 26 tsunami does strike?
"A good warning system can help. A system that warns people at least one hour in advance is good, because it gives them time to head for higher ground. You should build structures that are strong enough to withstand the waves," he said.
"You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance, for fishermen and ship-owners, when there is a tsunami warning, they need to know to move their ships out to sea, not dock them.
"This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland. You do not feel the tsunami when you are in deep water. Governments should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline, perhaps by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo shoots, or mangrove plants."
Dr Dharmasaroja says that he is more than willing to help in convincing the sceptics.
"They should just take the time to set up a committee to study this phenomenon and, if they are willing, I will produce my research to show why I believe that an earthquake will take place in the Nicobar Islands area," he said. - TODAY
