Investors are back to the safe assets. It's time for the deals to BUY.
At the end of last year GOLD was decreasing in price amid a strong dollar and the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies. But in mid-December the situation began to change: Bitcoin's rapid growth is over and the dollar became vulnerable and less attractive for investors.
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Today we expect the release of data from the US on housing and the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia for January, which is forecasted to be less than the previous month.+
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The pair is in a downtrend.
This week we do not expect the release of any significant indicators which would be able to turn the markets around.
The US dollar is under pressure due to the possible suspension of the government's work for the first time since 2013.
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The pair in undergoing a price correction.
Today we expect the release of the index of economic activity (ZEW) from Germany - this news may affect the market.
In the United States after an agreement between the Democrats and the Republicans the government resumed its work and at the moment its funding is agreed upon by February 8. American stock indices showed growth.
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USD/SEK – review and short term forecast
The upward trend was completed at the end of the year, and instead formed a new, intense downtrend. The value of the dollar has been decreasing during the month, against most currencies. It was mainly because of political factors.
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Today we expect the gross volume of mortgage loans and the index of changes in retail sales from the UK. After the release of previous reports from the UK, our pair has updated the 2-year highs and is currently near the 1.4250 mark, having moved from the maximum mark of 1.4325.
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Today is the last day of the World Economic Forum and Trump is giving a speech.
Each year some of the most powerful people in the world – presidents, prime ministers, central bankers – gather for a week in the small ski resort of Davos, Switzerland. They spend five days conferring with one another on topics pertaining to the global economy, trying to come up with solutions to international problems together.
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We are waiting for a bearish movement.
To date, our pair has moved away from the previously reached highs and has been hovering around the level of 1.4310. The data released today from the UK showed mixed dynamics and did not significantly support the British currency.
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We expect a bearish movement.
Today in Australia the index of prices for exports and imports was released and showed results better than forecasted. However, permits for new construction introduced a negative trend. The Australian dollar and its weakening are affected by the prices of raw materials and indicators of China's economy.
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The rates reached the price level from August 2014. There's a high probability for a price correction, so the short deals seem more effective.
The upward trend continues and the euro strengthened versus all currencies, including the SGD. Moreover, the trend is becoming more rapid, given the emerging downturn in the Singaporean economy. The rates continue to test the resistance line and to push it up, achieving the price level of August 2014.
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We expect a correction on the financial markets.
Today a number of macroeconomic indicators are emerging in the United States that can support the reserve currency. The dollar index began to strengthen at the end of last week. It showed growth relative to the main pairs.
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We are waiting for the confirmation signal.
After yesterday's collapse of stock indices around the world, today most of them are trying to adjust to the fall. The dollar index yesterday showed a slight increase, reaching the level of 89.57 as the reserve currency strengthened against the basket of major currencies during the American session.
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Investors this week prefer safe assets, so the JPY increased in price against the CAD. Short deals seem most effective now.
The Canadian dollar, which had previously been supported by increasing oil prices and positive economic data, again came under pressure. The price of oil is rapidly decreasing because of the growth of oil extraction in the United States and the situation on the US stock market this week which have a significant impact on the situation on the market.
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How are Brexit negotiations going in 2018?
While economic news lately have been dominated by topics pertaining to the American dollar and stock market, as well as the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, one very important event deserves to be brought back into the spotlight: Brexit.
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AUD / USD technical analysis
The dollar remains stable at the moment.
The dollar index is trading above the 90.00 mark, and oil prices remain at strong levels. Today we expect the monthly release of the OPEC report.
Today is not rich in news and we do not expect any macroeconomic indicators.
Given the technical indicators, we can see a decrease in demand for the Australian dollar and the formation of a downward trend for this pair.
Our pair has now found the resistance level near MA (21) and it is likely that after the test of this level it will go down again. The MACD is also in the negative zone.
We advice to look for points to enter short positions near the level of 0.7860 and set the take-profit near the level of 0.7730
We expect the pair to move downwards.
Since the beginning of today's trading session, the dollar index has fallen below the level of 90.00 and is currently losing its positions relative to the basket of major currencies.
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The JPY is strengthening against most currencies. The deals to SELL seem most effective in the middle term.
The Japanese yen recently received significant support due to an increase in the demand for safe assets and economic growth in Japan. The yen has strengthened against most currencies. The NZD/JPY currency pair is no exception. After a long uptrend now a new trend has been formed in favor of the JPY.
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This week provided many inflation reports, but what do they mean?
We have mentioned this several times within our previous articles, but today we thought it would be a good idea to look into inflation – the single most important determinant on the financial markets this year.
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We are waiting for a bearish movement.
Today we cannot expect the euro to strengthen against the dollar after Friday's decline. Data released on Friday in the US showed the strength of the US economy and supported investors' optimism.
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There are a number of factors that support the oil but the short deals seem more effective due to the constant increasing of oil extraction volumes in the USA that negatively impacts the rates.
Oil is above $60 per barrel, after two weeks of the price falling to $58.5
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We are waiting for a powerful downtrend impulse.
Yesterday the minutes of the Fed meeting held on January 30-31 were published. The data released strengthened the outlook for an imminent increase in the interest rate and helped strengthen the dollar. Thus, the dollar index rose above the level of 90.00.
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Are policy changes in store for the eurozone?
This week has certainly been turbulent for the euro. The single currency began the week by shedding some of its recent gains against the dollar and kept going as investors were preparing for this week’s big announcement: the minutes from the European Central Bank’s meeting from January 24.
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We have a bullish trend.
The dollar could not keep its position after strengthening last week. After the publication of the Fed's meeting reports the US dollar went up against a basket of major currencies.
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The bearish trend continues.
With regard to the possible increase in the level of inflation in the US to 2.5%, the dollar went into a flat against major currencies. All of investors' attention this week will be focused on the speeches by Jerome Powell, which will be held on Tuesday and Thursday.
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