i've been saying things will collapse since 2004..................
Yup, and a broken clock gets it right twice a day. You might as well tell me you have been saying things will collapse since 1990, and because of that prediction, you have been saved from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 crashes.
Anyway, as long as you are happy can already.
Originally posted by Seowlah:1. Buy if you can predict that prices will rise further
2. Sell if you can predict that prices will fall further
3. Buy if you can predict that prices has reached bottom
4. Sell if you can predict that prices has reached the top
The problem is no one can predict accurately 100%.
Some have used technical analysis, some have used fundamental analysis, some have resorted to "so called insider information" from very reliable sources, some have used advanced software progammes to exploit the rapid changes in stock prices in a matter of minutes or even in seconds, some resorted to lucky charm in different forms, some have resorted to become big players with huge capital to manipulate the stock prices of the companies that they own or targetted.
Playing with stocks is a game of luck, manipulation, skills and emotional IQ.
"Win money, want to win some more, lose money want to win back." Aiyoyo.
Get your facts right. Fundamental analysis do not seek to predict prices.
i don't see how they can get out of trouble with ever-rising bad loans.............and over 1400 Trillion USD derivative ponzi game time-bomb....................Alt-A, Prime and commercial properties defaults should be in the news this year..............among other bad loans..............
How to get out of debt? Easy, just create hyper inflation and inflate till they are out of debts. Inflate until the debt is worthless in paper money. The suckers are the one who loaned the money.
And what happens when paper money gets worthless? Think about it. Period.
Originally posted by eagle:Get your facts right. Fundamental analysis do not seek to predict prices.
Fundamental analysis includes the use of financial and accounting data to work out a fair value of a company's share.
Firstly, I don't think you should ask such a question here. You're risking blood and sweat on a forum. Economy now is like a time bomb. usually there will be alot of waves (highs and lows) in after downturn and mere folks like us really cannot predict how it will go. So, high chance of you losing than winning.
In my general opinion ( I'm not sure right or not, so don't bet on what i say), Japan and China are the 2 most dangerous market right now. Especially baidu.com . Japan is sinking soon and China is still going up. Heathcare is safer, but there's alot of opposition going on, and it takes another few months for the plan to be formalised. If you want to buy shares now, read the news few months back and seek consultation from brokers. Or you might as well wait for second crash.
Originally posted by Seowlah:Fundamental analysis includes the use of financial and accounting data to work out a fair value of a company's share.
yup.
So it does not predict any of the following:
1. Buy if you can predict that prices will rise further
2. Sell if you can predict that prices will fall further
3. Buy if you can predict that prices has reached bottom
4. Sell if you can predict that prices has reached the top
It's about buying value... not buying predictions.
Just like why you would buy this from a certain food stall instead of another... internally, you perceived food from that store of higher value due to things like taste and presentation.
Btw, the use of financial and accounting data is only a portion of fundamental analysis...
Originally posted by eagle:Yup, and a broken clock gets it right twice a day. You might as well tell me you have been saying things will collapse since 1990, and because of that prediction, you have been saved from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 crashes.
Anyway, as long as you are happy can already.
what i mean in 2004, i can see a great depression was possible becoz the derivatives back then was over 400 trillion.
the subprime was only about 1 trillion and already the world almost crashed if not for economic stimulus and rescue packages by so many countries...............you think they can handle even 10% of the 1400 Trillion now ?
Originally posted by As romanista2001:what i mean in 2004, i can see a great depression was possible becoz the derivatives back then was over 400 trillion.
the subprime was only about 1 trillion and already the world almost crashed if not for economic stimulus and rescue packages by so many countries...............you think they can handle even 10% of the 1400 Trillion now ?
As I said, you happy can liao. It's not my job to convince anyone, nor do I want to bother to give deeper explanations and analyses. To me, you are wrong, but to you, I'm wrong. Seriously, all I care is how to increase my networth and cashflow instead of explaining all my personal theories and understandings.
Originally posted by eagle:yup.
So it does not predict any of the following:
It's about buying value... not buying predictions.
Just like why you would buy this from a certain food stall instead of another... internally, you perceived food from that store of higher value due to things like taste and presentation.
1. Buy if you can predict that the price will rise further ie people will buy shares if they perceive that future prices will rise further
The use of the discounted cash flow method to calculate the value of a company's share will set the bench mark in which the buyers to decide to buy the company's share at the current price. An analyst announces a higher fair value using the DCF method could lead to more people to perceive the higher company's value and buy the company's shares.
2. Sell if you can predict that the price will fall further ie people will sell the shares if they believe that the future share prices will fall further
Similarly, an analyst announces a lower fair value using the DCF method could lead to more people to perceive that the current value / price is overvalued and decides to sell the company's shares.
3. Buy if you can predict that prices have reached bottom ie people wil buy shares if they perceive that the share prices have reached bottom
4. Sell if you can predict that prices have reached the top ie people will sell shares if they perceive that the share prices have reached the top
For points 3 and 4, the fundamental analysis cannot be used to predict the bottom or the top.
Originally posted by Seowlah:1. Buy if you can predict that the price will rise further ie people will buy shares if they perceive that future prices will rise further
The use of the discounted cash flow method to calculate the value of a company's share will set the bench mark in which the buyers to decide to buy the company's share at the current price. An analyst announces a higher fair value using the DCF method could lead to more people to perceive the higher company's value and buy the company's shares.
2. Sell if you can predict that the price will fall further ie people will sell the shares if they believe that the future share prices will fall further
Similarly, an analyst announces a lower fair value using the DCF method could lead to more people to perceive that the current value / price is overvalued and decides to sell the company's shares.
3. Buy if you can predict that prices have reached bottom ie people wil buy shares if they perceive that the share prices have reached bottom
4. Sell if you can predict that prices have reached the top ie people will sell shares if they perceive that the share prices have reached the top
For points 3 and 4, the fundamental analysis cannot be used to predict the bottom or the top.
Anything la. You are factually very wrong about true fundamental analysis already. It's not only about DCF. If you know what you are doing, you can buy at fair value as well. Or DCF could be great but FA can still tell you that you should not buy. To rattle off, I take into account NAV, NTA, P/E, P/B, on top of looking at the DCF, Net Current Liabilities, ROA, ROC, and FCF. Investment moats, profit sustainbility, growth potential are all important as well. In addition, for certain companies, I study the about the management... and for others, I visit their stores too especially when they are based in Sg, and observe... I'm only left with going to the AGM to see the managment's presentation because I simply dun have the luxury of time.
All I can say is, applying such knowledge halfway can kill, be it TA or FA.
need both fundamental and technical....................fundamental to pick right companies in right industry.............technical to help time entry and exit..............
fundamental alone very difficult since you may be right in the direction of the stock but if you get timing wrong, you must close out at small loss or average down or sweat out the drawdown.................
technical alone may lead you to enter well..............but into a possible retracement............only for the main trend to reassert itself...........
by the way, how you two masters pick out which stocks since there are so many !!!!
i envy those guys that do only oil or gold/silver...............no need to search through all the options............
Originally posted by eagle:Anything la. You are factually very wrong about true fundamental analysis already. It's not only about DCF. If you know what you are doing, you can buy at fair value as well. Or DCF could be great but FA can still tell you that you should not buy. To rattle off, I take into account NAV, NTA, P/E, P/B, on top of looking at the DCF, Net Current Liabilities, ROA, ROC, and FCF. Investment moats, profit sustainbility, growth potential are all important as well. In addition, for certain companies, I study the about the management... and for others, I visit their stores too especially when they are based in Sg, and observe... I'm only left with going to the AGM to see the managment's presentation because I simply dun have the luxury of time.
All I can say is, applying such knowledge halfway can kill, be it TA or FA.
Indeed, I do not use TA or FA in buying shares.
I only buy blue chip company's shares and average down the share price when the prices of these companies fall sharpy during crisis times and collect dividend at other times. At times, when I get very reliable information from very reliable sources, then I will invest. Other times, I just watch people make lots of money from shares as I am very risk-averse.
safer also good lah
all boils down to 2 kinds of pain
the pain of losing money you already have or the pain of losing potentially more profit.................
Originally posted by As romanista2001:safer also good lah
all boils down to 2 kinds of pain
the pain of losing money you already have or the pain of losing potentially more profit.................
Ya lor, I don't mind missing out the opportunities of making more profits. I prefer slow and steady.
I started investing in blue chips companies' shares more than a decade ago and so my average cost is relatively low. The chance of losing all the money is very small unless these blue chips companies collapse suddenly.
I sold some shares and locked in the profits during boom times and average down the cost during the crisis times. So, I believe my investment is relatively safe lor though return not very high lah.
I know this person who bought into Noble Shares in late 1990s at cents....
wah, got people hold until so long ah....................maybe he forgot about them lah..............LOL
Originally posted by As romanista2001:wah, got people hold until so long ah....................maybe he forgot about them lah..............LOL
It's his biggest holdings now.
If you want to compare, Warren Buffett holds much longer.
of course the really rich guys can buy a lot at low price they just collect dividend enough liao lor.................but must be at low price otherwise the dividend can't cover loss in share price.
Buffett lucky mah, got banker as daddy and associated with the Rothschilds...........free access to insider info lah..................once famous and with mega funds, he buy what also people follow so share price sure go up..........or he can simply gang up with other big hedge funds to move the markets too................
end of the day, capital is the key. i'm sure those super rich guys have a network of moles in major companies giving them all sorts of insider info.
i remember having some friends of mine say they wanna follow his pattern but i say different levels of capital means different methods must be used. they almost wanted to buy Citigroup or don't know which mega bank at USD25 but lucky i talked them out of it............
even if can make money at USD25, what's the point ? you're not going in with 25 million bucks mah............how many shares can you buy at USD25...................
A disbeliever will always find isolated examples to prove things wrong.
The person I mentioned has built up his portfolio to over 7 figures since 1996.
I've built up my portfolio to past 6 figures just over last year. My gf did too on her personal portfolio. Up to you to believe.
But as I said, I'm not looking to convince you or anyone.
so you only buy or do you sell too ?
Sell when the original reasons for purchase do not hold anymore.
Originally posted by eagle:No
Explain.
Hi RM,
Buying shares when they are falling means buying throughout 2008?
Instead, we should buy whenever value is present, and economic recovery is in sight... i.e. buy throughout 2009 (which incidentally is what I did). Think about this... throughout 2009, shares were rising (since Mar 09)... If we buy when shares are falling, then you wouldn't buy then... It was the time where shares were rising!
But to me, there's no right or wrong in shares. There's only earning money or losing money... being right does not mean you earn.
The above is only a simplified view of my way of determining whether to buy... which incidentally isn't that complex either...