U.S. Shares
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Hey I like to start a topic on recommended buys and sells for US shares from Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P500.
You can use whatever technical of fundamental analysis for this.
So anyone can recommend any?
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Lazy to do on US Shares, but I just did an analysis on STI which I cannot confirm 100%
We are in a corrective Primary B up-wave, and I expect this to be a 3-wave structure, Intermediate A,B,C
See my chart.
Let's say I take Primary B to retrace 61.8% (means at the 38.2% mark), so I set my fibo 0% at lowest point in march and 100% at this particular level.
Within Primary B, we have completed intermediate A upwards (with a 5 waves structure). This ended when we retrace 38.2% (denoted by the 61.8% level).
I believe we should have completed intermediate B too when it comes to the 50% red line at 2212, and exactly at the support of the upchannel.
I will expect a int C wave to bring us up to the 297x region to complete Primary B before starting a Primary C downwards to retest March lows.
Expected time frame to reach 297x is about 6 weeks plus.Just my 2 cents...
Then again, we might already be in a new bull market, and if so, my wave counts will be wrong
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To add on, Intermediate A has completed a 5 waves structure as in my earlier thread on beware entering the market. My guess is that this will be a 5-3-5 wave structure, and I think int B has completed the 3 waves structure. We should be in a wave 1 of int C now, and so I might load some blue chips on the next dip, which should be wave 2... to catch the strong wave 3 upwards...
Right now, I'm rather optimistic that the market will achieve near 2970 before a major down.... bringing sti back to re-test March lows... Many indicators other than my TA....
Firstly, worldwide economy hasn't really recovered....
Secondly, Oct is traditionally the down period...
Thirdly, I believe another wave of retrenchments are coming...
Fourthly, the H1N1 virus is still looming in the background...
Fifth, I see a repeat of the 1998's down... We had a bull run around 2001 before seeing STI come down all the way to 800 again in 2003, on the back of SARS. History might be repeating itself again, and I believe STI will not only come back to 1455, but go lower to test 1200...
I missed a bit of the run-up from March to Apr, and I bought a bit too early, catching the falling knife in Feb... Having learned a lot of things, I'm now more conservative, and accumulating more and more funds for this expected down... Lost a lot of opportunities to double my cash holdings because I ran out of opportunity funds in March
... Now waiting patiently liao... -
So this is Elliott Wave? I never learnt that cos it's too complex.
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learn from Warren Buffet, read his books and bio.
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Yup It's Elliot wave
I only just touched the basics.... But in the short term, STI might come down.... that's what some more senior forumers mentioned in CNA forum... Some of the things, I learned there...
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Originally posted by eagle:
Yup It's Elliot wave
I only just touched the basics.... But in the short term, STI might come down.... that's what some more senior forumers mentioned in CNA forum... Some of the things, I learned there...
Hmmm... That sounds interesting -
EW is damn damn damn interesting lor!
One of the interesting aspect is it's relation with fibonnacci numbers, another is the concept of wave fractals...
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I believe a resistance level has been formed in STI at the 2380 level. Or around there.
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first stop, 2360... if reverse, a H&S will be formed
next stop, probably 2391... previous strong resistance turned support turned resistance again... Probably will break this in the mid term, and go up to 2680 in a 5 waves structure to end subwave 3 of int c of pri B. Then down to dunno where, probably 38.2% retracement... before a final leg up to 2970
just a conjecture only...
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Updated chart
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Looks like folks in the US just realised that the economy is not going to recover as early as they like it to be.
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u can see my chart and expectations at CNA forum
Expecting the current down to reach STI 2054 before a rebound to 2682