Things to expect in 2017
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Originally posted by BusAnalayzer:
I hope LTA modifies few existing routes to terminate at Changi Business Park Terminal, going through the CBP central area.
All the routes introduced in the CBP area have super high loading.
20 - almost full fleet DD from a full fleet SD when introduced
35 - getting to a full fleet DD by regular conversions of SDs -> DD as the loading at Xilin from the CBP area is v high. You see even DDs in the red during peak hours.
47 - SDs are not able to tank the load between CBP & Tanah Merah. I wouldn't advocate SD->DD conversion simply because the loading between Tanah Merah - Marine Parade is strictly between 30-40 pax.
118 - DDs did v well on this service since very first month of introduction.
* There could be possible options that LTA can try to divert one more service from Tanah Merah to CBP given the high loading. They could do it to 38, 45, 46, 48 or extend 26. Whatever they do, it cannot be done standalone but have to tie in with some other changes in the region.
* Personally I would prefer if it is svc 46 as it would help connect Bedok North Town and DTL3 @ Bedok Reservoir to CBP area. Also help with the lukewarm loading the service has.
CBP's demand is quite visible from the number of non-CBD premium services serving there. Can certainly introduce one or two more services (preferrably semi-express) that roughly trace the route, possibly one to Hougang/Sengkang, and one to Bedok/Eunos. Aside CBP Terminal, UEC can also be a good place to start the route.
Any diversions should take into consideration the loading balance on the remainder sections of the route.
- 38 could be a possible choice, with alternatives (for faster travel) 20 to Tampines central, 12 to Tampines east and Bedok south, and 24 to Bedok central, but it may end up being seen as too duplicative of 20 and 47.
- Diverting 45 may be difficult (?) if the Tanah Merah -- UEC Rd connection is not backed up, leaving more stress on 14.
- 46's current north-south routing makes it difficult to divert east to CBP, so probably not the best choice. Better for optimization around other areas (such as within Tampines town or into Pasir Ris).
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- 17A and 506 could be considered. 48 too, but not too winding.
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Originally posted by AJQZC:
CBP's demand is quite visible from the number of non-CBD premium services serving there. Can certainly introduce one or two more services (preferrably semi-express) that roughly trace the route, possibly one to Hougang/Sengkang, and one to Bedok/Eunos. Aside CBP Terminal, UEC can also be a good place to start the route.
Any diversions should take into consideration the loading balance on the remainder sections of the route.
- 38 could be a possible choice, with alternatives (for faster travel) 20 to Tampines central, 12 to Tampines east and Bedok south, and 24 to Bedok central, but it may end up being seen as too duplicative of 20 and 47.
- Diverting 45 may be difficult (?) if the Tanah Merah -- UEC Rd
connection is not backed up, leaving more stress on 14.
- 46's current north-south routing makes it difficult to divert east to CBP, so probably not the best choice. Better for optimization around other areas (such as within Tampines town or into Pasir Ris).
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- 17A and 506 could be considered. 48 too, but not too winding.\
My thoughts in red
- 38 could be a possible choice, with alternatives (for faster travel) 20 to Tampines central, 12 to Tampines east and Bedok south, and 24 to Bedok central, but it may end up being seen as too duplicative of 20 and 47. BA: Yes svc 38 could be diverted as there are alternatives.
- Diverting 45 may be difficult (?) if the Tanah Merah -- UEC Rd connection is not backed up, leaving more stress on 14. BA: 45 if diverted can be helpful to connect Bedok North, Eunos, Hougang, Serangoon and AMK. But this will need some more change such as 26 to be extended to UEC via Tanah Merah or get 46 to be diverted via Tanah Merah to UEC.
- 46's current north-south routing makes it difficult to divert east to CBP, so probably not the best choice. Better for optimization around other areas (such as within Tampines town or into Pasir Ris). BA: Actually can. What will be missed is Bedok South Ave 3 which also has svc 506 connecting to Bedok Reservoir MRT in future if required. There aren't too many BTO blocks around Bedok South Ave 3 or UEC (anyway).
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- 17A and 506 could be considered. 48 too, but not too winding. NV: 506 can stay as it is and 17A modification will make it very winding. 48 can but will be too duplicative with svc 47. Prefer some service from Bedok North (45 or 46) to go to CBP instead.
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Originally posted by BusAnalayzer:
My thoughts in red
- 38 could be a possible choice, with alternatives (for faster travel) 20 to Tampines central, 12 to Tampines east and Bedok south, and 24 to Bedok central, but it may end up being seen as too duplicative of 20 and 47. BA: Yes svc 38 could be diverted as there are alternatives.
- Diverting 45 may be difficult (?)
if the Tanah Merah -- UEC Rd connection is not backed up, leaving
more stress on 14. BA: 45 if
diverted can be helpful to connect Bedok North, Eunos, Hougang,
Serangoon and AMK. But this will need some more change such as 26
to be extended to UEC via Tanah Merah or get 46 to be diverted via
Tanah Merah to UEC.
- 46's current north-south routing makes it difficult to divert east to CBP, so probably not the best choice. Better for optimization around other areas (such as within Tampines town or into Pasir Ris). BA: Actually can. What will be missed is Bedok South Ave 3 which also has svc 506 connecting to Bedok Reservoir MRT in future if required. There aren't too many BTO blocks around Bedok South Ave 3 or UEC (anyway).
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- 17A and 506 could be considered. 48 too, but not too winding. NV: 506 can stay as it is and 17A modification will make it very winding. 48 can but will be too duplicative with svc 47. Prefer some service from Bedok North (45 or 46) to go to CBP instead.
38: How exactly will it be diverted though? If it just touches the outskirt of CBP (Expo MRT), not sure if it will be useful. If it goes all the way to the centre of CBP (like 47, 118), will probably be too winding and may duplicate too much with 20/47.
45: If that happens, a serview from Bedok North Ave 3 needs to be diverted to UEC to maintain connection to a few shops along Bedok Road. 46 cannot because it's simply duplicative to 14. 18 may actually be a good choice.
46: Will need to see how many people from Bedok South will use DTL3 when it opens. (Actually I don't think they will go all the way to Bedok North MRT, as DTL3 itself is extremely inconvenient.)
17A: I don't think it's very winding - if you see it as just a service from Bedok North Road and Ave 4 to CBP.
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I predict these svc will undergo amendments or shortened this year.Also a new planned depot along Central West near Bt Merah/Harbourfront area.
SBST:14,21,51,63,74,105,147 & 154.
SMRT:61,67,960 & 961.
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Originally posted by carbikebus:
I predict these svc will undergo amendments or shortened this year.Also a new planned depot along Central West near Bt Merah/Harbourfront area.
SBST:14,21,51,63,74,105,147 & 154.
SMRT:61,67,960 & 961.
Doubtful, seeing that there has not yet been large scale modification of services in any previous years. I think LTA may start with a few trials on those with really bad routing/timing/demand first (but the ones listed above are good candidates).
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Originally posted by carbikebus:
I predict these svc will undergo amendments or shortened this year.Also a new planned depot along Central West near Bt Merah/Harbourfront area.
SBST:14,21,51,63,74,105,147 & 154.
SMRT:61,67,960 & 961.
I predict this svc will undergo amendments or shorten:
SBST: 51 (The world's longest route), 154
SMRT: 61 (The world's longest route 2), 67 (The world's longest route 3), 961
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This thread will go on until December 2017. LOL.
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Originally posted by gekpohboy:
This thread will go on until December 2017. LOL.
Lmaooo might be sia. Didnt expect this but haha what can u expect of 2017 by dec? Haha
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Originally posted by TPS Timothy Mok:
I predict this svc will undergo amendments or shorten:
SBST: 51 (The world's longest route), 154
SMRT: 61 (The world's longest route 2), 67 (The world's longest route 3), 961
Hi mr TPS Timothy mok, sbst 51 is 37.7km in 1 direction while smrt 61 is 38.3km in 1 direction. So 61 is longest while 51 is 2nd longest. Cheers. Thanks.
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Originally posted by BusAnalayzer:
My thoughts in red
- 38 could be a possible choice, with alternatives (for faster travel) 20 to Tampines central, 12 to Tampines east and Bedok south, and 24 to Bedok central, but it may end up being seen as too duplicative of 20 and 47. BA: Yes svc 38 could be diverted as there are alternatives.
- Diverting 45 may be difficult (?)
if the Tanah Merah -- UEC Rd connection is not backed up, leaving
more stress on 14. BA: 45 if
diverted can be helpful to connect Bedok North, Eunos, Hougang,
Serangoon and AMK. But this will need some more change such as 26
to be extended to UEC via Tanah Merah or get 46 to be diverted via
Tanah Merah to UEC.
- 46's current north-south routing makes it difficult to divert east to CBP, so probably not the best choice. Better for optimization around other areas (such as within Tampines town or into Pasir Ris). BA: Actually can. What will be missed is Bedok South Ave 3 which also has svc 506 connecting to Bedok Reservoir MRT in future if required. There aren't too many BTO blocks around Bedok South Ave 3 or UEC (anyway).
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- 17A and 506 could be considered. 48 too, but not too winding. NV: 506 can stay as it is and 17A modification will make it very winding. 48 can but will be too duplicative with svc 47. Prefer some service from Bedok North (45 or 46) to go to CBP instead.
I think 506 should be terminated at this CBP Terminal. Since it is a express serivce serving jurong east and the east side of singapore and our mrt is not that stable it should be good for 506 to go around CBP. actually LTA should let 506 go back to changi airport as it original planned
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http://electrichybrid.volvobuses.com/
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Originally posted by TPS Timothy Mok:
I predict this svc will undergo amendments or shorten:
SBST: 51 (The world's longest route), 154
SMRT: 61 (The world's longest route 2), 67 (The world's longest route 3), 961
Yes, and also 858, which is debatable as it loops at the airport, but does not really terminate there.
And by the way, it would be great if you could use the right word, "Singapore's longest route", because there are even longer routes around the world. You can see tons when you cross the Johor Straits. (Unless your world = Singapore)
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Singapore's population would be around 5.7 million, by 2017.
A Single-Decker bus can carry 60 people. A Double-Decker bus can carry 100 people. On average, a bus can carry 80 people. (I know cannot simply average out the values, but heck care)
To accommodate 5.7 million people, Singapore needs around 71,250 buses.
On average, around 8 buses is used for 1 bus service.
71,250 buses = 8,906.25 bus services.
Of course, not everyone travels at the same time.
So, let's divide the value by 18 (the number of hours bus services operate every day).
8,906.25 / 18 = 494.79 bus services
Furthermore, not everyone takes public transport. And some more, the aim is only for 75% of the population to use public transport.
So, multiply by 0.75,
494.79 x 0.75 = 371.0925 bus services
(372 bus services)
:. By 2017, Singapore needs 372 bus services.
After BSEP ends this year, there will be around 424 bus services, which would obviously be a huge oversupply of bus services.
(We only need that number of bus services in 2030, if our population becomes 6.9 million)
To optimise resources, there would be a need to cut around 52 bus services.
Singapore has 26 HDB towns and estates.
On average, each town/estate would have 2 bus services removed.
To start the ball rolling,
I guess bus service 256 of Jurong West will be removed. 258 may merge into 192.
Gotta say, I'm not that well-versed in the loading of bus services.
So, I will let the more experienced participants make their educated guess on which bus services could be cut.
Thank you for taking time to read this message.
Regards,
Gek Poh Boy
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^^ With that, there could be early retirement of non-WAB buses and non-GCM buses. GCM implementation can also be expedited.
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Originally posted by gekpohboy:
Singapore's population would be around 5.7 million, by 2017.
A Single-Decker bus can carry 60 people. A Double-Decker bus can carry 100 people. On average, a bus can carry 80 people. (I know cannot simply average out the values, but heck care)
To accommodate 5.7 million people, Singapore needs around 71,250 buses.
On average, around 8 buses is used for 1 bus service.
71,250 buses = 8,906.25 bus services.
Of course, not everyone travels at the same time.
So, let's divide the value by 18 (the number of hours bus services operate every day).
8,906.25 / 18 = 494.79 bus services
Furthermore, not everyone takes public transport. And some more, the aim is only for 75% of the population to use public transport.
So, multiply by 0.75,
494.79 x 0.75 = 371.0925 bus services
(372 bus services)
:. By 2017, Singapore needs 372 bus services.
After BSEP ends this year, there will be around 424 bus services, which would obviously be a huge oversupply of bus services.
(We only need that number of bus services in 2030, if our population becomes 6.9 million)
To optimise resources, there would be a need to cut around 52 bus services.
Singapore has 26 HDB towns and estates.
On average, each town/estate would have 2 bus services removed.
To start the ball rolling,
I guess bus service 256 of Jurong West will be removed. 258 may merge into 192.
Gotta say, I'm not that well-versed in the loading of bus services.
So, I will let the more experienced participants make their educated guess on which bus services could be cut.
Thank you for taking time to read this message.
Regards,
Gek Poh Boy
Wow ur maths thou haha.
Talking abt 256, did anyone suggest this b4 but would it be good for it to be extended to the new tuas bus ter when it opens this year, and it shld passby some other areas in tuas not served by public bus services on the way to tuas frm boon lay?
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The Seletar GCM bus contract should be awarded anytime now.
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Originally posted by gekpohboy:
The Seletar GCM bus contract should be awarded anytime now.
I predict by month end.
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Originally posted by carbikebus:
I predict by month end.
The shortlist isn't even out yet.
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Originally posted by gekpohboy:
The Seletar GCM bus contract should be awarded anytime now.
For local operators,
TT > SMRT = GA >>>>> SBST
I hate SBST to the core. Its buses are now coming later than ever, and they have zero sense on deployments. Their buses are getting worse than SMRT's (which rly tells a lot), and they can STILL act like they're boss by domineering LTA on bus types, depot space allocation etc. My area here, svc 2 has become a world better after GA took over — full fleet DDs, punctual buses and well-maintained, clean fleet. So good riddance to SBST!! Of you think Yishun is bad enough you would not want to imagine SBST taking it over.
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Originally posted by SMB128B:
For local operators,
TT > SMRT = GA >>>>> SBST
I hate SBST to the core. Its buses are now coming later than ever, and they have zero sense on deployments. Their buses are getting worse than SMRT's (which rly tells a lot), and they can STILL act like they're boss by domineering LTA on bus types, depot space allocation etc. My area here, svc 2 has become a world better after GA took over — full fleet DDs, punctual buses and well-maintained, clean fleet. So good riddance to SBST!! Of you think Yishun is bad enough you would not want to imagine SBST taking it over.
Replace SBST with SMRT, and we have those #SMRTBANGSAT lobbyists. Is it really coming down to lobbyists v lobbyists these days?
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Originally posted by SMB128B:
For local operators,
TT > SMRT = GA >>>>> SBST
I hate SBST to the core. Its buses are now coming later than ever, and they have zero sense on deployments. Their buses are getting worse than SMRT's (which rly tells a lot), and they can STILL act like they're boss by domineering LTA on bus types, depot space allocation etc. My area here, svc 2 has become a world better after GA took over — full fleet DDs, punctual buses and well-maintained, clean fleet. So good riddance to SBST!! Of you think Yishun is bad enough you would not want to imagine SBST taking it over.
Hi mr SMB128B, perception wise only. I also see lagging bus no 2 at loyang area. So ultimately it boils down to each and every individual thinking only. Cheers. Thanks.
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Originally posted by sgbuses:
Replace SBST with SMRT, and we have those #SMRTBANGSAT lobbyists. Is it really coming down to lobbyists v lobbyists these days?
Hi mr sgbuses, yes I agree. Lobbyists vs lobbyists. Cheers. Thanks.
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Originally posted by dupdup77:
Hi mr SMB128B, perception wise only. I also see lagging bus no 2 at loyang area. So ultimately it boils down to each and every individual thinking only. Cheers. Thanks.
Hahaz, I take the bus everyday bro, from SBST era till now.. I can tell you this is the truth. Your one is just a one-off incident I believe.. Which direction is it in?
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Originally posted by SMB128B:
Hahaz, I take the bus everyday bro, from SBST era till now.. I can tell you this is the truth. Your one is just a one-off incident I believe.. Which direction is it in?
Hi mr SMB128B, it is in direction towards new bridge road terminal.
Even if it is true for no 2, it is certainly not true for no 6 and 386. I have met many situations. Recently I was at one bus stop waiting for service 386. The driver saw me and refused to open the door and drove off. Luckily there was another bus 386 just behind. The driver saw what has happened ahead and apologized to me on behalf of the earlier driver. I just smiled and boarded. So how? Is Go Ahead good or bad like this???
So it boils down to people perception only. Good or no good all depends on circumstances. Does not really mean Sbst or go Ahead is good or no good. So let's do the sensible thing of not condemning sbst or smrt or tower transit or go ahead. Cheers. Thanks.