DTL rationalisation speculations
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Then again , we have to recall that bus services linking from one station to another on the same line is essential now, especially with the spate of MRT breakdowns recently.
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Originally posted by proudtobeme:
most service will stay. i think serv like 65 lose most dd and bcum more sd with few dd only. 66 may reduce few bus and continue to be all sd.
No matter how hard I say, GE2015 is over. I think most of the things can adversely happen. no shortening/removal of service/reduce buses. At most wait for GCT and/or LHL to pass away bef GE2020 or 2025, then see what we can think :)
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Originally posted by Guides anyone?:
Then again , we have to recall that bus services linking from one station to another on the same line is essential now, especially with the spate of MRT breakdowns recently.
Well, I do have to point out that:
- (1) Mechanical breakdowns on older lines (NSL/EWL) are less likely to happen to DTL, which is a new line. Even compared to the multiple breakdowns on CCL, DTL has had a (relatively) clean record so far.
- (2) DTL2, which directly follows (Upp) Bt Timah Rd, has REALLY many buses directly following the line. Five of them (66, 67, 170, 171, 961) follow more than half of the DTL2 section. Compare with NSL/EWL.
- (3) DTL is meant to be a medium-capacity line, with demand considerably less than NSL/EWL/NEL (though this is debatable and subject to change), any breakdowns on DTL would not have the kind of scale that's happened to NSL/EWL a while ago.
- (4) SBST/SMRT will deploy free shuttle services in the event of breakdowns, which will always be the first priority for MRT passengers.
- (5) MRT Breakdowns are seldom and occasional. It is not justified to "prepare" bus services in case of breakdowns, only for them to run at under half capacity for most of the day. That'd be a waste of bus and human resources. Despite breakdowns, we don't see SBST/SMRT adding new routes to double up with NSL/EWL, other than 128.
In short, change is still possible and likely. I support route rationalisation through the most efficient way of using and redirecting buses, but I believe that it would be wise to make these changes some time after DTL2/3 opening. Things may change, new estates may come up, unexpected breakdowns may happen, etc., best to watch for a while.Even for recent train breakdowns, SBST and SMRT are reacting considerably well with the shuttle services and frequency increases of public buses. So what's with the worries? -
Originally posted by AJQZC:
Well, I do have to point out that:
- - Mechanical breakdowns on older lines (NSL/EWL) are less likely to happen to DTL, which is a new line. Even compared to the multiple breakdowns on CCL, DTL has had a clean record so far.
- - DTL2, which directly follows (Upp) Bt Timah Rd, has REALLY many buses directly following the line. Five of them (66, 67, 170, 171, 961) follow more than half of the DTL2 section. Compare with NSL/EWL.
- - DTL is meant to be a medium-capacity line, with demand considerably less than NSL/EWL/NEL (though this is debatable and subject to change), any breakdowns on DTL would not have the kind of scale that's happened to NSL/EWL a while ago.
- - SBST will always deploy free shuttle services in the event of breakdowns, which will be the first priority for MRT passengers.
In short, change is still possible and likely. I support route rationalisation through the most efficient way of using and redirecting buses, but I believe that it would be wise to make these changes some time after DTL2/3 opening. Things may change, new estates may come up, unexpected breakdowns may happen, etc., best to watch for a while.DTL brokedown on the very first day of operation...I rmb..
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Originally posted by TIB429E:
DTL brokedown on the very first day of operation...I rmb..
Can't recall ... I would say it's probably errors in preparing / adjusting the system for full operation.
Anyway, previous post updated.
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920 922 shud have bendy with dtl2 open.
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Originally posted by proudtobeme:
920 922 shud have bendy with dtl2 open.
Not sure if people would prefer LRT instead -
Originally posted by proudtobeme:
920 922 shud have bendy with dtl2 open.
920 can have 4 SDs and 3 bendy buses but not for 922.Still manageable with 7 SDs.
945 can have 3 peak hours bendy buses.
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Originally posted by AJQZC:
Can't recall ... I would say it's probably errors in preparing / adjusting the system for full operation.
Anyway, previous post updated.
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/service-resumed-on-downtown-line-after-disruption-due-to-power-fault
"It is the second breakdown for the six-station, 4.3km line which began operating just five days ago.
On its opening day on Dec 22, service was disrupted for 15 minutes due to a train fault."
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No. DTL2 Rationalisation not happening.
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Originally posted by Path Light:
No. DTL2 Rationalisation not happening.
Because??
Just because you think so, doesn't make it true. Unless your dad is Minister of Transport, or CEO of LTA. Then maybe.
If any relevant routes get amended by LTA's orders after DTL2 opens, we'll come to your house and chop your head off. Deal?
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Originally posted by AJQZC:
Because??
Just because you think so, doesn't make it true. Unless your dad is Minister of Transport, or CEO of LTA. Then maybe.
If any relevant routes get amended by LTA's orders after DTL2 opens, we'll come to your house and chop your head off. Deal?
Because Service 66, 67, 170 and 171 serve Durean Road and Bukit Timah Road
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LTA should let the some bus service as it is even the DTL is fully open. We cannot depend on MRT all the time. and also if the new minister want to do good for the people he should study how to make bus service and mrt more effective instead just force people to take mrt just to cover up operating cost just those ex-ministers do. and later introduce back service route which use to had old service cover before after people complain or for some political reason.
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Nothing will happen when DTL only has 3-car trains... Imagine if trains are already packed at Bukit Panjang and people cannot board at Beauty World... And yet you still remove bus services?
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Originally posted by wsy1234:
LTA should let the some bus service as it is even the DTL is fully open. We cannot depend on MRT all the time. and also if the new minister want to do good for the people he should study how to make bus service and mrt more effective instead just force people to take mrt just to cover up operating cost just those ex-ministers do. and later introduce back service route which use to had old service cover before after people complain or for some political reason.
With distance-based fares, the total income will probably be the same regardless of whether people take buses or MRT... Unless they want everyone to have super windy journeys on MRT such as NEL-CCL-EWL from Punggol to Pasir Ris. So they can still use $$ collected from buses to cover up operating costs for MRT and the effect should be almost the same.
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Originally posted by array88:
Nothing will happen when DTL only has 3-car trains... Imagine if trains are already packed at Bukit Panjang and people cannot board at Beauty World... And yet you still remove bus services?
Well... read my first post earlier on this page.
My take on rationalisation is not about violent removal of bus services, but rather on useful route adjustments and reducing of redundancies to ensure maximum efficiency.
A former long service may be split to cater to different crowd loadings. Parallel sectors (i.e. Upp Bt Timah Rd / Dunearn Rd) may be made express. Certain routes may be rerouted to serve new MRT stations. Demand is dynamic, and will definitely shift with DTL opening. It's not as simple as just removing bus services.
Also DTL2 does not serve as many dense HDB neighbourhoods as EWL/NSL/NEL do, the demand will be relatively smaller. True, we may still see some unable to board trains at Beauty World, but there's enough bus services to the first interchange at Botanic Gardens, it's fine as long as this link is retained. And there's always the possibility of short-trips on the DTL, as with EWL/NSL/CCL.
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LETS WAIT AND WATCH. I don't think for the first 6 months there will be any changes made. LTA/operators will observe loading pattern and then take a call.
Some services might lose some buses/downgrades but I don't expect any major route changes in the first 6 mo.
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Originally posted by wsy1234:
LTA should let the some bus service as it is even the DTL is fully open. We cannot depend on MRT all the time. and also if the new minister want to do good for the people he should study how to make bus service and mrt more effective instead just force people to take mrt just to cover up operating cost just those ex-ministers do. and later introduce back service route which use to had old service cover before after people complain or for some political reason.
LTA should let all services stay where they are
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171 re-routed as Jurong East > Yishun
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Doubt there will be any major ammendments. It will only cause more inconveniences, and moreover the MRT isn't reliable these days and many people are switching to buses.
If they withdraw more services, it will cause more uproar from the public because the govt are buying more buses for PTOs and yet withdrawing more bus services?
People speculated that there will be major rationalisation when CCL was introduced but it didn't happen. Guess the trend is different now. They want more buses to complement with the MRT, not MRT replacing buses.
My guess is that 61 may break into 2 services, for 1. Shortern the route, 2. GCM purposes.
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Originally posted by vicamour:
Doubt there will be any major ammendments. It will only cause more inconveniences, and moreover the MRT isn't reliable these days and many people are switching to buses.
If they withdraw more services, it will cause more uproar from the public because the govt are buying more buses for PTOs and yet withdrawing more bus services?
People speculated that there will be major rationalisation when CCL was introduced but it didn't happen. Guess the trend is different now. They want more buses to complement with the MRT, not MRT replacing buses.
My guess is that 61 may break into 2 services, for 1. Shortern the route, 2. GCM purposes.
What can I say? Please read my earlier posts dated 15 Sep and 29 Sep on this page.Bus services only go where there is demand. A considerable part of this demand WILL go to DTL2.
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Originally posted by vicamour:
Doubt there will be any major ammendments. It will only cause more inconveniences, and moreover the MRT isn't reliable these days and many people are switching to buses.
If they withdraw more services, it will cause more uproar from the public because the govt are buying more buses for PTOs and yet withdrawing more bus services?
People speculated that there will be major rationalisation when CCL was introduced but it didn't happen. Guess the trend is different now. They want more buses to complement with the MRT, not MRT replacing buses.
My guess is that 61 may break into 2 services, for 1. Shortern the route, 2. GCM purposes.
How can 61 be affected by DTL? It doesn't have much to do with DTL2; although there's some extent of duplication with DTL3, 61 basically brings people there to different destinations compared to DTL3.
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Actually, with regards to DTL2 rationalisation, I think the services that will be affected the most may not actually be those that duplicates DTL2, but those that share the same origins and destinations with DTL2.
Yes, I mean those Bukit Panjang services, whether they're express or not. Of course, those services that duplicates DTL2 all the way like 171 will face reductions in loading; but for those that ply other routes (mainly BKE) to city, such as 190, 700, 960 and 972, it depends on whether they're faster than DTL (especially 960 because its route in city is also covered by DTL2). Even services like 75 and 966 can be affected.
Whereas for those services that actually ply Bukit Timah Rd / Upp Bukit Timah Rd, many of them are just using these roads as a "semi-expressway" and their loading does not actually come from there. This is even applicable to some services with significant duplication with DTL, such as 48 (Holland Village), 66 (Jurong East / Bukit Batok) and 67 (CCK).
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66 will have more DDs, 171 will start to use DDs along with 77, 173 and 970
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Well, DTL is a medium capacity Rapid Transit System ("MRT" and "LRT" are only terms for public consumption). Each train has the capacity for 931 people - equivalent to around seven double decker buses (931 / 130).
During peak hours, if the frequency is four minutes, that's fifteen trains per hour with a total capacity of 13,965 people (931 x 15) - equivalent to around one hundred and seven double decker buses (13965 / 130).
The frequency of bus services along Bukit Timah Road (Dunearn Road) is around four minutes and around ten minutes. Currently, there are fiveteen bus services. During peak hours, if all bus services use only High-Capacity (130 pax) buses and operate at a frequency of seven minutes (8.6 buses/hr), it would mean that the buses have a total frequency of 16,770 people per hour (8.6 x 130 x 15).
While the Downtown Line stage 2 capacity (around 13,965 people/hour during peak hours) may not be able to completely replace the capacity of the existing bus services (around 16,770 people/hour during peak hours), it could replace 83.2737% of it (13965/16770 x 100%).
As there are currently fifteen bus services at Bukit Timah Road (Dunearn Road), this means up to 12.491055 bus services (0.832737 x 15) do not have to ply Bukit Timah Road (Dunean Road) when the Downtown Line stage 2 opens.
However, it appears that except bus service 170, none of the fifteen bus services have their routes follow the alignment of the Downtown Line stage 2 completely.
Nonetheless, bus route 66 can be split into around two separate bus routes. Bus route 67 can be shortened to loop at around Rocher-LittleIndia-Newton.
Bus route 171 can be shortened to loop at Newton. The section between Bukit Panjang and Yishun can become a separate new bus route.
Bus routes 74, 77, 151, 154, 157, 174, 563, 852, 961, 961C and 970 do not duplicate much of Downtown Line stage two, so I think they should remain the same.
Meanwhile, bus route 960 can be shortened to ply only between Woodlands and Bukit Panjang.
Bus services 190 and 972 should remain the same because they serve a different area (Orchard Road) than the Downtown Line.
In short, I think (only four) bus routes 66, 67, 170 and 171 can be amended to skip - either entirely or mostly - Bukit Timah Road and Dunearn Road. Bus route 960 can be amended to only ply between Woodlands and Bukit Panjang.
Whereas for the other bus routes, they should remain the same. Bus services plying on the bus routes can operate at a lower capacity, if the ridership falls.