If Indonesia wages war on Spore, what is the likely outcome?
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Diplomatic recognition
If you look at who sits on the UN Security Council (not all are democracies), who the rising powers of the current century are, who their major allies and trading partners are, then you should ask whether the UN will vote to recognise the invader after many years. If you think it won't happen, it's idealistic.
What do you think China is so active in Africa and South East Asia for? So that diplomatic recognition does not go to Taiwan. Tell me a 280 million strong country, the biggest in South East Asia, will not be an important partner for China.
Look, the Falklands and Kuwait were such shocking invasions because the invaders and invadees were ALL US allies. Yet they were invaded, in no small part because the US sent ambiguous signals and Saddam and Galtieri misinterpreted them to mean the invasions were acceptable. So yes, surprises do come out of the least expected.
Said president Reagan: "I can't see why two US allies are fighting over that little ice-cold bunch of land down there". Saddam was hesitant to wage war until encouraged by this careless comment from the US ambassador: "We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait."
Also note that the US would have had "no opinion" over the Falklands and Kuwait. Except that the Falklands belonged to their closest ally and that Kuwait had oil. The angry US reaction was a surprise to Saddam himself. The US kept very neutral during the Falklands conflict. Arms sales to Argentina resumed before the end of the 1980s.
And everyone knows the US and Australia turned a blind eye to the invasion of East Timor.
Everybody wants peace, nobody wants war. But if happened to East Timor and Papua, and even to Malaysia and Singapore during Confrontation, you know it can happen again. All it takes is regime change in Indonesia. Yes you will get your strategic warning, after that you're really in for it.
Military facts
As to the military equation, if you believe that "the question boils down to Singaporean? Will We Fight?", it's not a good bluff.
I for one don't want war with Indonesia because I know we can't win. Even if we fight. As said before, you can arm yourself to the teeth. All it takes is a big military of Iran's mediocre standard for the big gorilla to defeat Singapore. Indonesia does not live and die by its infrastructure, this war will not be decided by RSAF surgical strikes. To win the war, ask what kill ratio each SAF soldier must achieve. The answer is unachievable even on their iPad games. I'm sure you will do your best, the commandos here will despatch a couple thousand, even hitman may kill a couple. We will have a few years work ahead of us.
Once you start arming yourself, investment will start draining away in anticipation of war. Hopefully you will deplete your reserves on arms spending and the aggressor will call off their war plans. Or then again they may simply attack for sake of nationalistic pride and to give the military some prestige and some tasks to keep occupied, otherwise the military may well depose the leadership.
That military is going to be at the height of its power. It will take advantage of the buildup and be at its most corrupt and influential. It will spread its tentacles in business, devouring huge national spending, embezzling from every procurement, through backroom dealings and bully tactics. It won't exactly be Mr Popular with the civilian population. If hostilities are suddenly called off, think about whether the military will feel like seizing power.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_invasion_of_East_Timor#US_involvement A year earlier, in December 1974, United States Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had been asked by an Indonesian government representative whether or not the US would approve the invasion.[59] In March 1975, U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia David Newsom, recommended a "policy of silence" on the issue and was supported by Kissinger.[60] On October 8, 1975, a member of the United States National Security Council, Philip Habib, told meeting participants that "It looks like the Indonesians have begun the attack on Timor." Kissinger's response to Habib was, "I'm assuming you're really going to keep your mouth shut on this subject."[61] On the day before the invasion, U.S. President Gerald R. Ford and Kissinger met with Indonesian president Suharto. The United States had suffered a devastating setback in Vietnam, leaving Indonesia as the most important ally in the region. The US national interest "had to be on the side of Indonesia," Ford concluded.[62] According to declassified documents released by the National Security Archive (NSA) in December 2001, they gave a green light for the invasion. In response to Suharto saying, "We want your understanding if it was deemed necessary to take rapid or drastic action [in East Timor]," Ford replied, "We will understand and not press you on the issue. We understand the problem and the intentions you have." Kissinger similarly agreed, though he had fears that the use of US-made arms in the invasion would be exposed to public scrutiny, talking of their desire to "influence the reaction in America" so that "there would be less chance of people talking in an unauthorised way."[63] The US also hoped the invasion would be relatively swift and not involve protracted resistance. "It is important that whatever you do succeeds quickly," Kissinger said to Suharto.[64]
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The only way they can possibly succumb Singapore is through sending troops and land them on the coastal area. Singapore has been equipped with tanks and surface to air missles. The tanking bombardment and soldiers would stall them from moving in, while the air-surface missles will bring down their warplanes. Msia will supply foods and other support. While Australia will land a few bombs on its presidential palace and armed forces HQ and air installation to prevent them from taking off and landing for replenishment. Upon war ended, everyone helps one another to develop war torn countries and restore peace & joys. It comes back to square one - harmony day altogether
- but a much more painful price to pay for a lesson -
Singapore must occupy Batam, and build HDB flats there to meet the demands of Singaporeans for cheaper and affordable flats.
The indeginous population may fire home made rockets and throw stones at the SAF, this would only force Singapore to clear more jungle and build more HDB flats.
Scenario sounds familiar.
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Originally posted by alize:
Diplomatic recognition
If you look at who sits on the UN Security Council (not all are democracies), who the rising powers of the current century are, who their major allies and trading partners are, then you should ask whether the UN will vote to recognise the invader after many years. If you think it won't happen, it's idealistic.
What do you think China is so active in Africa and South East Asia for? So that diplomatic recognition does not go to Taiwan. Tell me a 280 million strong country, the biggest in South East Asia, will not be an important partner for China.
Look, the Falklands and Kuwait were such shocking invasions because the invaders and invadees were ALL US allies. Yet they were invaded, in no small part because the US sent ambiguous signals and Saddam and Galtieri misinterpreted them to mean the invasions were acceptable. So yes, surprises do come out of the least expected.
Said president Reagan: "I can't see why two US allies are fighting over that little ice-cold bunch of land down there". Saddam was hesitant to wage war until encouraged by this careless comment from the US ambassador: "We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait."
Also note that the US would have had "no opinion" over the Falklands and Kuwait. Except that the Falklands belonged to their closest ally and that Kuwait had oil. The angry US reaction was a surprise to Saddam himself. The US kept very neutral during the Falklands conflict. Arms sales to Argentina resumed before the end of the 1980s.
And everyone knows the US and Australia turned a blind eye to the invasion of East Timor.
Everybody wants peace, nobody wants war. But if happened to East Timor and Papua, and even to Malaysia and Singapore during Confrontation, you know it can happen again. All it takes is regime change in Indonesia. Yes you will get your strategic warning, after that you're really in for it.
Military facts
As to the military equation, if you believe that "the question boils down to Singaporean? Will We Fight?", it's not a good bluff.
I for one don't want war with Indonesia because I know we can't win. Even if we fight. As said before, you can arm yourself to the teeth. All it takes is a big military of Iran's mediocre standard for the big gorilla to defeat Singapore. Indonesia does not live and die by its infrastructure, this war will not be decided by RSAF surgical strikes. To win the war, ask what kill ratio each SAF soldier must achieve. The answer is unachievable even on their iPad games. I'm sure you will do your best, the commandos here will despatch a couple thousand, even hitman may kill a couple. We will have a few years work ahead of us.
Once you start arming yourself, investment will start draining away in anticipation of war. Hopefully you will deplete your reserves on arms spending and the aggressor will call off their war plans. Or then again they may simply attack for sake of nationalistic pride and to give the military some prestige and some tasks to keep occupied, otherwise the military may well depose the leadership.
That military is going to be at the height of its power. It will take advantage of the buildup and be at its most corrupt and influential. It will spread its tentacles in business, devouring huge national spending, embezzling from every procurement, through backroom dealings and bully tactics. It won't exactly be Mr Popular with the civilian population. If hostilities are suddenly called off, think about whether the military will feel like seizing power.
You seem to think war with Indonesia equals massive armies clashing on large open plains. In which case numbers matter.
A quick analysis of local geopolitics and military capabilities indicates that this is an extremely unlikely possibility. The Indonesian military lacks the force projection capability to sufficently concentrate and project enough military force to invade Singapore. Additionally, Singapore is able to amass and mobilize troops defensively due to its small size. A land invasion by sea will be simply too costy an undertaking for Indonesia as it currently is. Remember it's not the size of your population but the amount of troops you can train and mobilize and get into the battlespace effectively.
On the other hand, this is also true of us. While we have better force projection capabilities versus Indonesia, Indonesia is simply too big for us to invade in any useful measure. No Tim Huxley here.
What is more likely is that Indonesia and Singapore will decide any military conflict largely at sea, trying to control and blockade any major sea routes. -
the country will be a give away based on the principles of eugenics...whoever wins will rule...
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Originally posted by mancha:
Singapore must occupy Batam, and build HDB flats there to meet the demands of Singaporeans for cheaper and affordable flats.
The indeginous population may fire home made rockets and throw stones at the SAF, this would only force Singapore to clear more jungle and build more HDB flats.
Scenario sounds familiar.
Sg's history....
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Originally posted by SingaporeTyrannosaur:
You seem to think war with Indonesia equals massive armies clashing on large open plains. In which case numbers matter.
A quick analysis of local geopolitics and military capabilities indicates that this is an extremely unlikely possibility. The Indonesian military lacks the force projection capability to sufficently concentrate and project enough military force to invade Singapore. Additionally, Singapore is able to amass and mobilize troops defensively due to its small size. A land invasion by sea will be simply too costy an undertaking for Indonesia as it currently is. Remember it's not the size of your population but the amount of troops you can train and mobilize and get into the battlespace effectively.
On the other hand, this is also true of us. While we have better force projection capabilities versus Indonesia, Indonesia is simply too big for us to invade in any useful measure. No Tim Huxley here.
What is more likely is that Indonesia and Singapore will decide any military conflict largely at sea, trying to control and blockade any major sea routes.You have gotten me partially right. I have not assumed an invasion is possible with the military balance as it is, but at an achievable level of its potential. This variable makes a successful invasion more or less possible.
Having said that, the static variable is how much more resilient Indonesia is as a combat effective power, as an economy and as a regime. This is both an incentive to attempt a war and something which counts against Singapore when war is underway.
Tactically, a large scale amphibious invasion with modern weaponry will be unprecedented, but possible. If at first you don't succeed, try and try again.
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Originally posted by SingaporeTyrannosaur:
You seem to think war with Indonesia equals massive armies clashing on large open plains. In which case numbers matter.
A quick analysis of local geopolitics and military capabilities indicates that this is an extremely unlikely possibility. The Indonesian military lacks the force projection capability to sufficently concentrate and project enough military force to invade Singapore. Additionally, Singapore is able to amass and mobilize troops defensively due to its small size. A land invasion by sea will be simply too costy an undertaking for Indonesia as it currently is. Remember it's not the size of your population but the amount of troops you can train and mobilize and get into the battlespace effectively.
On the other hand, this is also true of us. While we have better force projection capabilities versus Indonesia, Indonesia is simply too big for us to invade in any useful measure. No Tim Huxley here.
What is more likely is that Indonesia and Singapore will decide any military conflict largely at sea, trying to control and blockade any major sea routes.what about air attack? Indonesia attacking spore airspace and seaway as well. I do think Indonesia has the capability to launch a land attack at spore coastal regions
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I don't think the any air force in the region would want to really throw away planes trying to make piecemeal attacks against one of the most densely layered air defense systems in the world, it would be a terribly wasteful affair. The RSAF is nothing to scoff about as well, being one of the most well equipped and well trained air forces in the region.
There is a "Battle of Britain" advantage as well, the turnover and scramble rates for RSAF interceptors will be much faster than anything an invading air force can throw up with their planes needing to make a long trip to attack Singapore versus the RSAF which will have home ground advantage... this makes attacking Singapore airspace an unattractive prospect.To successfully attack Singapore by air requires assembling not only an airforce that can outnumber the RSAF (a difficult prospect), but also penetrate the dense network of air defenses and actually still have planes left to do some bombing. Simple economics means in order to do so Indonesia will have to spend a significant proportion of its GDP towards remaking its airforce, training its personnel, and acquiring the hardware to make this possible. Given the other economic pressures they face, I think their government will be hard pressed to justify extravagant purchases on their airforce. Under Suharto or Sukarno perhaps. Now? I don't really think so.
It is not impossible, that given sufficient motivation and unity, a singular charismatic leader or totalitarian regime that a country like Indonesia can mobilize and assemble a military that can force project. However this will then be speculative history as opposed to a realistic extrapolation of the current geopolitical situation of Indonesia and SEA in general. They have more issues keeping their country from falling apart than engaging in extremely wasteful military adventures. Sheer numbers are not enough, just look at the disasterous results the Arabs had in the Arab-Israeli wars despite having large advantages in numbers.
If I was an antagonistic Indonesia I would rather engage in a low-intensity, war of attrition that will slowly bleed Singapore dry and force them to make some drastic move that does not play to their advantages. If I was Singapore I would of course, try to limit the ability of my opponent to do this effectively. -
why would Indonesia ever wage such a war?
It does not have the beens to project its forces beyond its border. Look at how many fighter jets they have. how many LST they have?
and of the existing planes and ships, how many are actually functional to make it across the sea for an invasion?
Indonesia has a mainly territorial armed force, with a large army. Its large army is only useful if an effective mode of transport exists to bring them to the warfront.
With a decripit navy and airforce, and considering the inability to transport its ground forces across water, Indonesia is not in any shape to wage war on anybody.
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Supposing indo go head on with spore, who will help spore? And who will join Indo?
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Suppose Indon ship open fire and sink RSN ship in supposedly Indon territorial waters, who will help spore? And who will join Indo?
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Supposing if spore rsn accident fire a missile and hit a village killing tens of pple? Will indo strike back?
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Supposing poor indonesian toppled present government in a jesmine revolution, and a new government wanted Singapore to return all indo money in Singapore banks, if not it will strike, will we give money or will we preapre for war?
who will help us? who will join indo?
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Originally posted by sgdiehard:
Supposing poor indonesian toppled present government in a jesmine revolution, and a new government wanted Singapore to return all indo money in Singapore banks, if not it will strike, will we give money or will we preapre for war?
who will help us? who will join indo?
there is an umbrella grouping in our region, ASEAN.a war is not good for the countries involved, not to mention the countries around us. second is UN. Spore can send it rep to UN for a resolution on this issue.
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Originally posted by Rooney9:
there is an umbrella grouping in our region, ASEAN.a war is not good for the countries involved, not to mention the countries around us. second is UN. Spore can send it rep to UN for a resolution on this issue.
singapore works on peaceful conexistance with all our neighbours, we also are very keen to make friends with countries far and wide.
there will always be disputes and issues, but if everybody work within the umbrella grouping, abide by the UN resolution, there should never be any war.
the question here is "IF".
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still wondering if singapore army contractor will gimme a job in oz.looks like its harder than setting up my own company from looks of it.
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Originally posted by sgdiehard:
Supposing poor indonesian toppled present government in a jesmine revolution, and a new government wanted Singapore to return all indo money in Singapore banks, if not it will strike, will we give money or will we preapre for war?
who will help us? who will join indo?
Originally posted by mancha:Suppose Indon ship open fire and sink RSN ship in supposedly Indon territorial waters, who will help spore? And who will join Indo?
Lan Lan, return the money.
Lan lan, say it's an accident and SAF pay compensation to the servicemen even if the Indon skipper goes round boasting about it.
You think Mindef doesn't think about this when it sends your kid to infantry exercises like Ex Indopura?
"Accidents happen, we're assisting the family". Anyway he died for his country incl you, you complain what?
Originally posted by likeyou:Supposing if spore rsn accident fire a missile and hit a village killing tens of pple? Will indo strike back?
Give massive payout, to be distributed by the Indon authorities.
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Seriously there will be no wars among the neighbours, every leaders know that. If war, both countries stand to lose. They may threaten and warn but will not go for blood war.
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Originally posted by alize:
Lan Lan, return the money.
Lan lan, say it's an accident and SAF pay compensation to the servicemen even if the Indon skipper goes round boasting about it.
You think Mindef doesn't think about this when it sends your kid to infantry exercises like Ex Indopura?
"Accidents happen, we're assisting the family". Anyway he died for his country incl you, you complain what?
Give massive payout, to be distributed by the Indon authorities.
give the money, no way, the money does not belong to the government in the first place, unless they confiscate, then the owners will sue the government. Unless they use the taxpayers money, in that case, the government lan lan, the people also lan lan, don't vote them next time lah...in the mean time, lan lan.
what is there to pay the indo if they sink our ship?
with the defeatist attitude, we are doomed from the beginning, lan lan...no matter what happen.
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Originally posted by likeyou:
Seriously there will be no wars among the neighbours, every leaders know that. If war, both countries stand to lose. They may threaten and warn but will not go for blood war.
they may cry war, but many have said that there is nothing to gain for them to actually mobilize for war. The cost for them will be much higher than it was 40 years ago.
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Originally posted by sgdiehard:
give the money, no way, the money does not belong to the government in the first place, unless they confiscate, then the owners will sue the government. Unless they use the taxpayers money, in that case, the government lan lan, the people also lan lan, don't vote them next time lah...in the mean time, lan lan.
what is there to pay the indo if they sink our ship?
with the defeatist attitude, we are doomed from the beginning, lan lan...no matter what happen.
I never said anything about paying Indon for sinking our ship. I think you misread my post.
Singapore has always taken a "pragmatic attitude" and the security needs of Singapore will come before the needs of a rich Indonesian.
The money is unlikely to be completely clean, so in order to reassure other investors, this is what we will trumpet.
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Especially since you said a "Jasmine revolution" in which the people rise up against those who benefitted from the corrupt old order.
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Originally posted by alize:
Lan Lan, return the money.
Lan lan, say it's an accident and SAF pay compensation to the servicemen even if the Indon skipper goes round boasting about it.
You think Mindef doesn't think about this when it sends your kid to infantry exercises like Ex Indopura?
"Accidents happen, we're assisting the family". Anyway he died for his country incl you, you complain what?
Give massive payout, to be distributed by the Indon authorities.
This is not peace time firing, so won't lan lan say its an accident. As per topic.
It could happen during hostile relations, like that between North and South Korea, and PRC and Taiwan. Then how to confirm firing happen in international waters or in Indon waters. Two sides always claim they are not in the wrong.
"Give massive payout, to be distributed by the Indon authorities." Simi lan leh.