What will China do about this?
I think they are likely to sweep it under the rugs for now. After all, they would be hosting the Olympics.
A scenario potential flash point that needs to think about in military terms.
Reading from the historical conflict in myanmar, one realized the complexity of Myanmar stretch beyond military Junta human right record.
Unfortunately Myanmar is riden with Human right violation of force relocation of rivalry ethnic group due to ethnic conflict since independent. There are no noble political parties in Myanmar.
if the military junta exist ruptly, or turn urgly and the political power are too weak to hold the country together than power vacum exist in Myanmar and a resurgent of ethnic claims of independent rises from Shan, Karen, Rohing yas of Arakan or mon. There are chances of unresolved ethnic conflict that pull the state apart. There is even a potential AL Queda panetration given the support from Rohingyas of Arakan thru Pakistan.
the potential of conflict may lead to a redraw of maps into 3 to 4 majors ethnic groups.
Assuming UN security council to authorized a peace monitoring force to ensure all parties hold their fight. The major burden would come to Asean nation since Nato, US are tied down to middle east.
MY,Thai,SG,Indo, would be carrying the major load. this deployment would affect all.
And it might be something inevitable in the long run..
yeah "I like the smell of naplam in the morning"
that would be a nightnare for any force to operate in burma, thick jungle, mountain, the area are big. peace keeping will be there for a long haul. An Iraq for SE Asia.
why not. but they are probably targeted at a particular ethnic group. take a peek at the WWII history than we paint an even more clear picture of the root cause. This article was publish by the Karen group.
During the ensuing 3½-year Japanese occupation of Burma, Aung San’s ‘Burma Independence Army’ acted as enforcers for the Japanese forces, and attracted a mixture of nationalists seeking independence and riffraff who wanted to loot villages. A wide range of atrocities were perpetrated by the BIA against Karen villagers and other ethnic peoples, as many Burmans finally had their opportunity to vent their frustrations against peoples they perceived as British ‘collaborators’. In areas such as the Papun hills, Karen villagers feared the BIA much more than they did the Japanese occupation forces.
At the same time, some Karen, Kachin and others had left for India with the retreating British forces, later to parachute back in, and a few British officers had remained behind in Burma. Villagers were organised into resistance units and armed to fight the Japanese and BIA, and the villages suffered heavy retaliations as a result [3]. In 1944-45, when the Allies re-entered Burma, the Karen, Karenni and Kachin were instrumental in helping them to recapture Burma by systematically harassing and creating havoc among the retreating Japanese [4]. In return for their loyalty they hoped for independence from the Burmans after the war, but it never came. By 1944, Aung San and the BIA had realised that the Japanese had no intention of granting real independence and that the tide of the war was turning, so they switched sides and also fought the retreating Japanese. After the war, Aung San approached the British for independence. The non-Burmans protested that they should be granted freedom from the Burmans, and the British convened the Frontier Areas Commission of Enquiry (FACE) to hear testimony, particularly from Karen regions, on their views. However, as more and more villagers testified of BIA atrocities, the British began to regret the experiment and after the Commission closed they wiped much of the testimony off the record. In the end, independence was granted under Aung SanÂ’s plan, with a unitary government which would clearly be Burman-dominated. [5]
here are some of the incident but you soon realized they are ethnic conflict in nature.
Thousands of Rohingya fled to what is now Bangladesh in four main periods: the late 1700s and early 1800s, the 1940s, 1978 and, most recently, in 1991and 1992. Refugee flows have been prompted by ethnic and religious conflict which were in turn triggered by broader political struggles.
May 1978, more than 200,000 Rohingya had fled to Bangladesh: this, the Burmese authorities claimed, signified the Rohingya's illegal status in Burma. Refugees reported that the Burmese army had forcibly evicted them and alleged widespread army brutality, rape and murder.14 The International Committee of the Red Cross and the Bangladeshi government supplied emergency relief but were quickly overwhelmed. The Bangladeshi government requested assistance from the United Nations and soon thirteen camps for the refugees were established along the border.
in 1991 and 1992, when more than 250,000 Rohingya refugees fled forced labor, rape and religious persecution at the hands of the Burmese army. With the assistance of UNHCR and non-governmental relief agencies, the Bangladeshi government sheltered the refugees in nineteen camps in the vicinity of Cox's Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh.