Burma Riots
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ok.. let's say the junta is overthrown...
Who will fill the vacuum ? To my understanding, Myanmar is no way fully controlled by the juntas. There are warlords, drug kingpins, hmongs, other minor tibes.. all having their own little state or kingdom under their own arms within burma... some of the states are rather huge too.. and in Jungle environment. The Suu kyi democracy party will only be legit in Yangon and some coastal states.. just like Iraq green zone.
People doesn't learn from the lessons in present Iraq and it's a desert.. Is Myanmar ready for so-called democracy ? Does Myanmar needs a strong man to head the country ? When the juntas fall will there be a civil war ? Death squads might even re-appear (Hmongs- C!A trained). Who will the normal civilian turn to... there will be many forces and parties involved... they will be caught in the middle... I'm not surprise, if they would one day say it's better under the junta.. just like the fall of Saddam.
One thing is for sure.. the whole country will go up in flames.
Myanmar must thread their path carefully... not at the wimps of foreign countries telling what's good for them. Of course, if good govt (be it socialist/communist/democracy) replace the juntas peacefully.. there'll be great. But I don't see who that could happen.. who will fill the vacuum ?
Ohh.. just to add. It's Myanmar.. burma no longer exist... Burma is an old Anglo-saxon colonial name. Myanmar is an independent country..
What's the use of democracy.. if your country is unstable and in turmoil with decades of violence. -
Think Again....PRC has a Naval Yacht, Oil pipe line going thru Myanmar, If the people revolt and throw out the military regime do you think the new gov going to allow PRC influence. It will look at the Brit or US for friendly policy to counter PRC influence. PRC will lost it geopolitical sphere in this part of the region.Originally posted by Shotgun:Honestly, why does everyone say that China is crucial in the resolution of this Crisis?
Would China tell Burma to stop use of force against the protesting monks? Would the Burmese Military Government listen to a country that once crushed university students with main battle tanks in TianAnMen?
China statement to the UN was that its Burma's internal affairs, and that it does not affect the peace and stability of the region. It seems that human rights, civil rights are not part of China's concern.
What does it take to overthrow a veto? It is ridiculous that a single country can impede actions that would save human lives. Even the US President's veto can be overruled if enough people agree that it should.
Internal affair that have serious impact of PRC interest. -
I think its a bit unfair to expect totally unbiased journalism. However, a "free press" is in a way entitled to their bit of bias and point of view. Ideally, there should be more than just CNA covering the event, so that we can get a few more angles on it.Originally posted by MobyDog:Actually, I find it strange too...
The whole affair was started by the Fuel increase, which is the direct result of the Iraq war. Even though the Myanmar govt was rash in implimenting the raise, without notice and in huge extreme. They can't be faulted by what they can't control.. fuel subsidy cannot be substain, since Myamar isn't all that rich. Some Burmese exile in bangkok.. blame the expensive move of the Administrative capital from Yangon as the reason.. but those money saved will not last forever.. It was only stall the problem. In any case, the moving of the capital is the direct result of US war posturing, indicating Regime change.. during those times.
Coming back to the the monks protest. The general media is quick to equate the fuel protest to Democracy. The monks and nuns in no way indicating it so. Look at CNA way of reporting the situation.. it is totally unbalanced and bias journalism .. they even dedicated 15 mins of their 1/2hrs news slot for it.. even invited Burmese Exile (likely C!A supported) for interview.
If one were to take note of CNA/Channel 5 reporting.. they are actually quite unbalance... when the myanmar police is shooting tear gas to disperse the protesters.. they using words like "no Qualm".. tactically equating tear gas to shooting live rounds. What are they suppose to use then ? Then, they were hundreds, then there were thousands, now there were tens of thousands. The general media is forcing the Juntas restrain.. but when the crowd reached a million... then what ? The media is setting up the junta for a TianAnMen Sq situation. In order to survive, the Junta will be forced to react... just like any other govt.
The media is propaganding that "should not use crackdown with violence".. then crackdown using what means ? The Junta should surrender ? Effectively, would that mean a regime change ? Again.. what has protesting against fuel height, to do with Democracy ? Of course, democracy groups will take advantage of the situation to join in, but are the monks saying that ? OR the media ?
Very unprofessional way of reporting. The general media is setting up the Myanmar for an TianAnmen situation. And not surprisingly, taking advantage of this protests, the US is urging for sanction. This is ridiculous, already the burmese suffering the fuel increase, and here, US is calling for sanction. .. Adding fuel to fire... aim to topple the Junta. Even better, install a pro-US democratically elected dictator. If you search US history... it is very familiar. Just like Iran is getting the Iraq treatment.
I am not a fan of the Junta.. but Myanmar must tread their own progress carefully.. and not along a civil war path. Also, I'm disappointed with CNA journalism.. I hope they are not part of the American propaganda news network.. but it seemed so.
According to most reports, the protests were sparked off by fuel hikes. But the protest didn't involve the monks initially.
http://voanews.com/burmese/archive/2007-08/2007-08-19-voa3.cfm?CFID=136290901&CFTOKEN=33485476
The hikes would have caused significant inflation, and would have caused much suffering to the people. Perhaps the monasteries felt the pinch too, but still how did they coordinate themselves to come out in protest? And why would monks, who usually separated themselves from messy politics do such a thing like this?
I'm not criticizing them. I'm simply amazed. -
Correct, I've pointed out China's strategic interest right at the beginning. When I doubted China's role in this crisis it was largely due to this reason.Originally posted by Arapahoe:Think Again....PRC has a Naval Yacht, Oil pipe line going thru Myanmar, If the people revolt and throw out the military regime do you think the new gov going to allow PRC influence. It will look at the Brit or US for friendly policy to counter PRC influence. PRC will lost it geopolitical sphere in this part of the region.
Internal affair that have serious impact of PRC interest.
China has interest to maintain the military government in Burma, since it does not know whether the new government would align Burma with them. So all China can say is that, "you know, you should try not to kill monks and protesters." The military junta would simply but respectfully remind China of Tian An Men, and tell their Chinese masters to refrain from meddling with their internal affairs.
Burma has too much to offer to China to take hard handed measures. And as expected, China vetoed sanctions against Burma.
Now, why sanction Burma when they are already so poor? The Burmese Military government is withholding approx. 100 million barrels of oil (they claim to have more, but i'm skeptical ) reserves from their people. They hike up the price of oil n gas perhaps to hopefully reduce local consumption so that they could sell more. With Oil prices at a high, would prove very profitable. Sanctions preventing their export of oil could perhaps force the military government to reduce their oil prices to the norm again.
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Article.aspx?id=1094
If you were burmese, You'd be pissed too. But the monks...??
Update: Gulf of Mexico storms pushed up oil prices again. EIA says prices expected to stay high. -
If you were burmese, You'd be pissed too. But the monks...??
My thought on this is that discontent has been brewing for quiet sometime it takes a little spark to fuel the protest.
Monk they are still human being subjected to human emotion. just because they are not involved in circular activities doesn't mean that they are numb to basic human rights such as fairness in society, freedom of mobilities and not watch over. decent living. just because they are Monk doesn't mean they have to live in a dog house.
personnally i do not think there are western consipracy behind. -
Originally posted by Arapahoe:
Eastern conspiracy perhaps?
[b]If you were burmese, You'd be pissed too. But the monks...??
My thought on this is that discontent has been brewing for quiet sometime it takes a little spark to fuel the protest.
Monk they are still human being subjected to human emotion. just because they are not involved in circular activities doesn't mean that they are numb to basic human rights such as fairness in society, freedom of mobilities and not watch over. decent living. just because they are Monk doesn't mean they have to live in a dog house.
personnally i do not think there are western consipracy behind. [/b]
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I was thinking the Thais must be watching their monks now!!!Originally posted by LazerLordz:Eastern conspiracy perhaps? 
I think PRC is worried. But I think the military junta might have lose their authority to lead after opening fire at civilian. So it is time for military Junta to take off their uniform and become civilian....new role. but Ms Kyi would still be house arrest. Asean style.....
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
I was thinking the Thais must be watching their monks now!!!
I think PRC is worried. But I think the military junta might have lose their authority to lead after opening fire at civilian. So it is time for military Junta to take off their uniform and become civilian....new ruling party. but Ms Kyi would still be house arrest. Asean style..... -
The Thai Junta is flexible so they would only use rubber bulletsOriginally posted by Arapahoe:I was thinking the Thais must be watching their monks now!!!
I think PRC is worried. But I think the military junta might have lose their authority to lead after opening fire at civilian. So it is time for military Junta to take off their uniform and become civilian....new role. but Ms Kyi would still be house arrest. Asean style..... -
Monks...
My Electrical sub-contractor's Myanmar worker ... told me that..
There are many kinds of monks in Myanmar.. most are part-timers, some short term, and some are full time. To add to the confusion, there are many sect of different discipline, and loyalty to hundreds of temples. He's not surprised to see some welding and waving sticks with anger...like hooligans, because many are simply part-time monks. -
The monks of Burma.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7014173.stm
It seems that the monks have a history of being at the front of protests. Not very secular... -
That doesn't mean they deserve to be bashed and shot in the streets......nor did they deserve to have their temples raided last night,and be dragged out of their beds and bashed by police for standing up for what they believe in!
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Never said they deserved that. Just noting their non-secular involvement thats all.Originally posted by ozzy_gurl:That doesn't mean they deserve to be bashed and shot in the streets......nor did they deserve to have their temples raided last night,and be dragged out of their beds and bashed by police for standing up for what they believe in!
However, there are some of the monks who did use violence, and when a peaceful protest turns violent, there is little justification necessary for riot police to use force. Think of the raids as a "sedition act" with more prejudice. -
Send in Blackwater operatives.
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And that would accomplish.... what?Originally posted by sgf:Send in Blackwater operatives.
Start a civil war in Burma?
The world should really seriously consider peacekeeping forces to enter Burma to facilitate democratic reforms. Yes, blatantly ignore China's claim that its Burma's internal affair. The legitimacy of the Military junta is questioned not just by the world but by they own people. -
Will Bush invade Burma and get rid of the military junta? Burma has no strategic interest to the US, and it has no oil ... Military junta rule (ie. rule by arms) seem to be common in Asia.
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there will not be an invasion but probably an extraction for all foreigners in Myanmar before it get worst.
So we shall watch. -
Since itÂ’s militaryboard, letÂ’s talk something more related.
3 observations:
1st , Burmese military government is moving its operations out of Yangon to the new capitol closer to Chinese border.
2nd, In 2003, China changed its guard on the border with Myanmar in Yunnan province, with PLA taking over the border defense responsibilities from local armed police.
3rd there once was rumors that during 2003 “Cobra Gold”, US paratroops had infiltrated northern Myanmar, since the news surfaced, China has changed border defense from Armed Police to PLA 13th Army. 2 full divisions are now deployed there.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EK22Ad02.htmlHONG KONG - On September 16, 03, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan told a press conference that China had early that month changed its guard on the border with Myanmar in Yunnan province, with People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers taking over the border defense responsibilities from local armed police. He said the move was a normal adjustment and had been completed, adding that many journalists had asked him about the issue the day before.
In fact, Kong's statement came out of the blue - nobody was asking any questions about the China-Myanmar border. The focus of the press conference was China's military buildup on its North Korean border. However, the Beijing government was evidently eager to let the world know that it was massing its forces on the Myanmar border as well, hence Kong's seemingly irrelevant statement.
For despite China's preference for a low profile, it likes to keep the outside world posted on what's happening on its borders.
Intrigued by Kong's remarks, Asia Times Online sent a team to the southern province of Yunnan, and into Myanmar itself, to investigate the nature and scale of the border "adjustment", and to try to determine why it is taking place. Had a US military force been secretly deployed inside Myanmar, as one rumor had it? Or, more likely, was Beijing worried that the embattled military dictatorship in Yangon was losing control of the country all on its own, without interference by Americans in the shadows?
ATol found that Kong did not tell the whole truth by describing the deployment as a routine adjustment. The deployment is large, and existing border patrols have not been replaced, but have been reinforced by well-equipped units of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
A restaurant owner in a night market near the southern border witnessed the "military adjustment" one night in early September. He said the fleet of army trucks from Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, and other places could have numbered in the hundreds, to say nothing of other vehicles. It took about 10 minutes for these trucks to pass by his door. They were heading toward Yunnan's border with Myanmar within the province's Xishuangbanna autonomous prefecture.
As with the situation on the Sino-North Korean border at the end of September, the changes on the China-Myanmar border were clearly reinforcements, not replacements. The existing border police were not removed; in fact, to make things more complicated and mysterious, some of them were transformed into a "mobility brigade". For local residents, this is one of the signs of prewar preparations.
The military buildup is most conspicuous in Jinghong, the capital of Xishuangbanna autonomous prefecture. Originally, there was one military branch zone and an armed-police branch stationed in the prefecture. The former was north of Jinghong, while the latter was on Jingdexi Road beside Jinghong Produce Market. Both of them were of division level. Military units 7702 and 7701, both under the branch zone of Xishuangbanna, have been stationed in Menghai and Mengla counties as well as Jinghong for a long time.
At the same time, armed police of a regiment size have also been quartered respectively in places mentioned above. In Daluo town of Menghai, which is on the border, there is one checkpoint with 26 police officers. Though small in size, its head, surnamed Zhu, is nonetheless a lieutenant-colonel, equivalent to a battalion commander in the military. A large number of armed police have been removed from the border because of the "adjustment", but some 100 police officers (equivalent to a company in size) are still kept in this tiny town.
The armed police that were stationed in Menghai and Mengla previously, one regiment in size each, seem to have been withdrawn. Yet a new mobility brigade with more than 300 officers has been set up along with existing forces: a squadron of armed police guarding the prison and a border brigade.
According to informed sources, the evacuated armed police were not sent far, but were redeployed in the deep forests closer to the border for tighter defense, forming a garrison model of armed police in the first frontline and PLA troops in the second.
On September 9, the newly arrived troops took over the barracks and the battalion headquarters from border police. Villages that were never garrisoned before were now for the first time fortified. According to informed sources, the reinforcements were PLA 13th Army field troops who were beyond the command of the Xishuangbanna Autonomous Prefecture Military Branch Zone.
The 13th Army is nicknamed the Chuan Army (ie Army from Sichuan province) in the locality, for it has apparently never been back to Yunnan since 1968, when the province came under the Chengdu Military Zone. Since that time, the field army stationed in Yunnan has been the 14th Army. But now, the Chuan Army has broken the convention and marched into the "taboo" region, a possible indication of Beijing's desire to reinforce the border. The 13th Army is ranked as a Level A field army, equipped with sophisticated armored weaponry, while the 14th is an inferior Level B, largely consisting of infantry.
The 13th Army has fielded troops in numerous towns and villages in the area. Radar and missile forces have been deployed in a deep valley near Mengzhi village, which has been demarcated as a forbidden zone.
At the time of Asia Times Online's investigation in the area, rumors were rife that US paratroops had infiltrated northern Myanmar to establish an air force base there. ATol confirmed that the rumor originated from the PLA barracks and soon spread among the local residents. Informed sources in Washington and Bangkok told ATol that the rumors were totally groundless. Some Bangkok sources insisted that the Thai government would not tolerate any such unilateral US action in neighboring Myanmar.
Other sources in Beijing told ATol that China's reinforcement is a result of its fear that the military government in Yangon might collapse because of domestic and international pressure. As Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been put under house arrest for the third time, opposition voices are mounting. Internationally, the clamor against the junta has been mounting, even within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is always reluctant to interfere in the internal affairs of a member state.
Under these circumstances, even if the military government of Myanmar can hold on to its rule, its ability to control the border could deteriorate dramatically, leading to fighting among warlords in the region. For that and other reasons, China has seen the need to strengthen its own defense of the border. -
I can understand the legitimate concern that fighting between the warlords and drug lords can spill over the borders into China. However, I also suspect that the deployments are also made in anticipation for a US-friendly government in Burma / Myanmar (which name do they go by these days?).
The US cannot open a 2nd front in the Korean Peninsula, and the next possible location is Burma. Vietnam is out of the questions since its government is relatively stable now, and doing relatively well. Its likely that the US may want to use this incident to support a regime change in Burma. -
When two groups of people...one armed with guns the others not...the group with guns will simply do what they do. Shoot at them..simple as that.Its just a matter of time, some garang soldier empties live rounds down range into an unarmed crowd, this will motivate those around him to do the same.
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Even Soldiers with guns do get frightened.I would say less trigger happy but more fearful of the growing,rowdiness and unpredictable crowd.Originally posted by SpecOps87:When two groups of people...one armed with guns the others not...the group with guns will simply do what they do. Shoot at them..simple as that.Its just a matter of time, some garang soldier empties live rounds down range into an unarmed crowd, this will motivate those around him to do the same. -
well it said one thing that the 13th Army give the PRC gov an option to move it troops down south if it is needed to secure its interest. Waste no time for deployment.
I once read that there were report that arms were given to rebel in Myanmar so it might just be those aids that cross border. -
alot of the burma videos keep post on net make it lag nia...
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My version of this story is a bit stunning anyway, I guess Yanks during Cobra gold 03 or shortly after it indeed did some secret operation into the Burmese jungles. The operations may not even necessarily be detected by Myanmar Juntas but somehow alerted PLA INT Units, China responded by immediately changed the border defense from armed police not to local PLA units( 14th Army), but more elite units from Sichuan ( 13th Army). Compared to the secrecy of ChinaÂ’s reinforcement action along its border with North Korea, which was carried out quietly and no announcement, the Chinese foreign ministry openly announced the Sino- Burmese border defense change at no invitation of media. Obviously, China announced such a news via Foreign ministry only got one dedicate audience, the one should be foreign based who really did something then and only he can read and receive the message.Originally posted by Shotgun:I can understand the legitimate concern that fighting between the warlords and drug lords can spill over the borders into China. However, I also suspect that the deployments are also made in anticipation for a US-friendly government in Burma / Myanmar (which name do they go by these days?).
The US cannot open a 2nd front in the Korean Peninsula, and the next possible location is Burma. Vietnam is out of the questions since its government is relatively stable now, and doing relatively well. Its likely that the US may want to use this incident to support a regime change in Burma.
Well, soon after, the Juntas were also alerted, probably briefed by Chinese. Considering their army’s poor equipment and doctrine, they thought they’d better move out of Yangon and found some place closer to PLA 13th Army, and better defended, in anticipation of possible Yankees’ précised & sophisticated ” beheading” action we have seen so many times.
If only for border defense to prevent any possible Burmese civil war spilled into China, I guess any PLA field army will have enough muscle to handle the situation and Chinese Foreign Ministry would have not announced such a border defense change after all, like they did in China - North Korea border defense issue. However, somehow they moved in 13th Army with some best units of PLAÂ’s mountain warfare and 1st J10 regiment is also deployed in Yunnan as well. You know those units are not prepared for any kind of troubles which are only Myanmar related.
HereÂ’s a footage recorded how the units from Chengdu 13th army operating jointly with PLAAFÂ’s Su-27s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgNjpFtBVgA
Handling any warlord in Burma no need to call in heavy fighters like su27 I guess. The 13th Army is there ready to intervene if US forces are going to carry on any beheading operations-- thatÂ’s my view. -
How likely for a power struggle between generals turn to civil war? different supporter fighting one another?
than of course what would china n asean do?