More so ever in the future. The cost is too high for any rogue government to wage war on each other.Originally posted by tankfanatic:any way i always thought malaysian as allies not enemy. Its just stupid.
If Islamic extremists become a real threat, they will be limited to the north. I doubt they have the political ability to control the Federal Government, but they might draw their support from the Pattani chaps.Originally posted by moca:In answer to some points:
1. the Malaysians are our friends, not enemies.
2. why we always consider our north and south neighbours to be a threat?
There could be war because Malaysia has a change of government to, say.... an extremist Islamic regime. Ditto for Indonesia.
So there is no guaranteed friendship in answer to point no. 1.
In answer to point no. 2, wars are fought between neighbours most of the time. If you are too far away, you normally don't even quarrel, let alone fight.
Of coursethere are exceptions, but you know what I mean.
Let`s develope this further..urm..and add a bit of logic to it. The closeness of countries in this region means that surprise is something they would have to dispense with. Speed means more. And in that regard, we can certainly mobilise faster than any of the countries here. Much much faster. Since you must certainly have been in the SAF, you will know the time which we would need to mobilize to start moving north.
hhmm...lets develop a more complex view for discussion sake ..Lets see......
We may not be able to get element of surprise.
first we are small island so lack of depth to hide if we enmass forces chances is that enemy will know. If we fly, southern island early warning system will detect. So to over come the element of surprise. You need elite forces to blow up what needs to be blow up. You need some troops to be in these island so that whatever forces in the island will not post a threat to mainland sing.
Let`s see what have we got. Will the southern flank be unprotected? Obviously not. Can the navy prevent a southern invasion assuming they(Indons) have the capability to invade(transport) in the first place(which they dont) while supporting the northward thrust. The answer is a resounding `yes'.
Before moving northward you need to content with the south. It is reasonable to assume that 3rd party will parachute to JB to support its friends. Done it before on our national day.
It is also reasonable to assume that we need to protect southern flank before pushing north. So you would need Navy to block the south to prevent reinforcement.
Now, this does not make sense. The RSAF has more jets than both two countries combined. Secondly, just about how many equipment can they surge at a moment`s notice given thier smallish air-forces and poor maintanence. We only have ten fingers. For example, can Malaysia put all 8 hornets in the air at a moment`s notice. Again, the answer is a no.
While all these are happening. RSAF will be contented with Migs29, Hawk, SU30. with R-77 (that is if they are maintained and trained) to gain air superior in the first day of war. hopfully they expand their R-77 to our F-5 and not on our F-16. If they will try to take out our airborne early warning. That will be devastated as first see first Kill will be out.
Ah..another one of the ridiculous Astross argument. Why? For lack any better points or more accurately equipment I suppose. The Astross cannot be used as an element of surprise. You would need to mobilize the rest of the armed forces first so there goes the surprise and since Singapore mobilizes faster than you can group your forces, the Astross would be long gone since. The Singaporean invasion would already have started. Imagine driving your Astross within range and firing without mobilizing the MAF. Does not make sense does it? The RSAF would be destroying any and every critical element of the MAF at the mere sign of war.
while all these are happening, Astros will be raining down on our enmass forces given that they might already know where we hide. But we might not be able to take out their astros because it is beyond our artillary range. What is left is our air forces to conduct search and destroy their launches. [quote]
Why would it be a D-day style seaborne assault? Just hop to the straits of Johor or take a look at the map. That river can be crossed in no time. And with Singapore controlling the air, there will be minimum resistance as well.
In the mids of all these activities you need to launch D-day style seaborne assult on the north.
You think SAF command and logistics is strong enough to support 2 front?
once element of suprise is gone i think it will take more than 6 days to wrap up.
ha ha ha wow you wrote like a career forum reply person. In any case i think you read too much into this. There has been a lot of assumption to make up a 6 days war. Usually when i am in a situation full of unknown, I would prefer to consider what if rather than simplified the know.Originally posted by Thrall79:Why would it be a D-day style seaborne assault? Just hop to the straits of Johor or take a look at the map. That river can be crossed in no time. And with Singapore controlling the air, there will be minimum resistance as well.
I have already answered your point about having a two front war. Anyway, you have unwittingly summed up the main issue here. The MAF is totally out-gunned and out-numbered that the only viable scenario would be for it to drag someone else into its war with Singapore. So, thank you very much.
You are right to consider Thailand. I think Thailand's political decision has far reaching consequences affecting Singapore and Malaysia.Originally posted by LazerLordz:If Islamic extremists become a real threat, they will be limited to the north. I doubt they have the political ability to control the Federal Government, but they might draw their support from the Pattani chaps.
An escalation of violence in Southern Thailand, and the potential for this Pattani nationalist movement to work together with Al-Qaeda affilates should be the real problem we should keep a look out for.
If they are rogue government, then they don't use rationale that we do. Wars are waged for their political purpose, at all costs. The agentina government took the risk of a war with the British to avert attention on their domestic problem, and they had war which they really did not expect.Originally posted by LazerLordz:More so ever in the future. The cost is too high for any rogue government to wage war on each other.
Frankly, I believe we need to work more with them, and improve our interoperatibility.
but it is too far fetch to assume that the Royal Thai Army would march all the way through Malay pennisular to fight a war with Singapore in Johore.Originally posted by Arapahoe:You are right to consider Thailand. I think Thailand's political decision has far reaching consequences affecting Singapore and Malaysia.
From historical event most unfortunately Siam political decision has impact Singapore the most. Starting from Parameswara during the Srivijaya empire to the WWII its association with Japan and allow its forces to land. It has somewhat indirectly led to invasion of Singapore. as much as they did not throw rock at Singapore. With the coup and the persistant of violence in southern thailand Singapore need to observe how this is going to evolve.
I am talking of the possibility that we and Malaysia may have to be on alert if the Southern Thailand violence turns from mere nationalism into a battlefield where Al-Qaeda-like groups may come in and take advantage of it to create more chaos.Originally posted by sgdiehard:but it is too far fetch to assume that the Royal Thai Army would march all the way through Malay pennisular to fight a war with Singapore in Johore.
I don;t forsee Royal Thai would march down. But its indecision from the past affected Singapore security.Originally posted by sgdiehard:but it is too far fetch to assume that the Royal Thai Army would march all the way through Malay pennisular to fight a war with Singapore in Johore.
i think the only reason to have to cross the strait is to go all the way to KL and have a political settlement. We have no reason to hold in JB ?Originally posted by Fingolfin_Noldor:There are 2 options.
One, we take Johor and then solidify our positions. I seriously doubt we can push beyond Johor without overtaxing our supply lines and also hope to fight back a M'sian counterattack.
Two, we do a blitz and march so fast up the peninsular to KL that we catch them with so much surprise that we trap the political leadership and force them to sue for peace.
The latter is the most risky but certainly the most beneficial.
Of course, to be honest, there's too much risk to be certain we can even hope to fight for more than a day. One slip and we will come crumbling.
Plus, the other option for them is to do blockade. They don't need to do it at Singapore itself, but as far up as Penang. We will be in deep shit regardless.
Yes...Originally posted by LazerLordz:I am talking of the possibility that we and Malaysia may have to be on alert if the Southern Thailand violence turns from mere nationalism into a battlefield where Al-Qaeda-like groups may come in and take advantage of it to create more chaos.
Someone said we would never have to fight KL.Originally posted by Arapahoe:go deeper we have to change the discussion thread.
I managed to cut off this discussion from other source, I cannot verify the validity but here for reference, just in case I get shot at again. ha ha haOriginally posted by moca:Someone said we would never have to fight KL.
I am painting the scenario why this may not be our choice.
Well, countries have been known to go to war over the slightest things. And there are things that might lead to limited armed conflict that might, or might not boil over to a full out conflict.agree.
But maybe the old, massive spark of hostilities scenario might be a tad simplistic, and somewhat more in the lines of what we expect to see in the Middle East with the Arab league versus Israel. To spark off a war in that way right here involves needing to cut off a lot of business ties, as well as several other bilateral pacts before things can rally get down to the tooth and nail, and quite suddenly as well.agree
However canÂ’t discount the possibility that a radical regime might take over our neighbours, so never say never.if that happen there would be less possibality of war with them because they would definately eradicate the radical first, either by conducting another COIN or civil war. Either way they will win as they did with the comunist. Come to think of it we probably will came and help them fighting the radical instead of fighting them.
My speculation would be that both nations are going to take several hits if a conflict ever breaks out. I do not think Malaysia would waste its ASTROs barrages indiscriminately on Singaporean civilian targets in the opening hours of the conflict (considering the lifespan of the launchers after they have expended their munitions could be measured in minutes), so the SAF will be bearing the brunt of the steel rain.there were a lot of artillery and from my experience with their army they know how to use it and utillies the geographical advantage to evade our jet. The serbs have done that with the american. and i have confirmation that MAF change their doctrine when they learned how the serbs spoof allied air superiority.
The MAF priority of course, would be to disable the RSAF with their arty as much as they can while the SAFÂ’s notion would be to counter battery and support the SAF advance as well.agree
If there was enough time for tensions to build up, the MAF would have mobilized forces to defend Johor in depth, so there will be no easy landing for the SAF there. On the other hand it puts their forces in range of SG arty. If it was a race to get mobilized (in the event of sudden hostilities), then most likely the Malaysians will have to concede Johor.try to read some of their so called 'quick march test' competition or the brigade level 'offroad challenge', you can see that they able to march the entire brigade in two days all the way from kelantan to johor with minimal damage to their equipment..... inside the cover of the jungle.
The SAF priority would obviously be to capture Johor first, and then push up as far as their resources will allow. On how this will turn out will be a matter of speculation as it will depend on the tactical brilliance and overall strategy of both sides. The MAF priority would be to contain the SAF, and inflict as much damage to SingaporeÂ’s economy and the like as much as possible as prolonged conflict would be much less acceptable to the island state then Malaysia.agree
So we donÂ’t really know how itÂ’ll turn out. All we can say that given our equipment and training, with a fair amount of smart fighting the Malaysians obviously have a serious potential foe to worry about if the stuff ever hits the fan, and of course the MAF are no easy meat either.ive seen their training. Lets just keep the battle in the air ok.
So all in all I would rather we not start anything stupid at all.agree
SAF priority:try to completely destroyed an important strategic asset such as refinery and threatened to destroy other strategic asset, they might negotiate (i doubt it)
Utilitize technological and force advantage to capture Johor and establish foothold in Southern Malaysia, limit damage to the main island and try to get the opponent to sue for peace.
MAF priority:if we learned enough geography we will know that its a defender heaven. Too many small hills and dense secondary jungle a perfect ambush country.... and seing the way our SAF climb hills during an attack.....
Contain the SAF, neutralize and draw the conflict out to a war of attrition. Neutralize SAF technological and force advantage through use of terrain and asymmetrical tactics.
OF course you fight to win for your side, but this is how all the cards are laid out I suppose.ofcourse
If we don't hold JB, M'sia can just waste all their arty ammunition on us.Originally posted by Arapahoe:i think the only reason to have to cross the strait is to go all the way to KL and have a political settlement. We have no reason to hold in JB ?