Return of multi-polar world?
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At the turn of the 20th century, we had a number of Great Powers all jostling for power on the world stage. This all changed after WWI after the collapse of numerous Old World empires with everything accumulating in a bi-polar, United States versus Soviet Union,world. After the Cold War,the world's been largely dominated by a single hyperpower. From the looks of it, we're slowly moving back towards a multi-polar world. China is undoubtedly rising and from recent reports Russia seems to be to be a on resurgence. Not to mention India and the EU. I guess we're looking at more Great Power-ish conflicts rather than US vs China in the future.
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i feel like smacking your head, and ask you SMLJ
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why? what he says is quite true.Originally posted by allentyb:i feel like smacking your head, and ask you SMLJ -
I'd think that multi-polarity might not be a bad thing. It forces more influential powers to settle on compromises and restricts the chances that any future rogue American adminstration to wage war as they fancy it.Originally posted by fallin:At the turn of the 20th century, we had a number of Great Powers all jostling for power on the world stage. This all changed after WWI after the collapse of numerous Old World empires with everything accumulating in a bi-polar, United States versus Soviet Union,world. After the Cold War,the world's been largely dominated by a single hyperpower. From the looks of it, we're slowly moving back towards a multi-polar world. China is undoubtedly rising and from recent reports Russia seems to be to be a on resurgence. Not to mention India and the EU. I guess we're looking at more Great Power-ish conflicts rather than US vs China in the future.
This, however, depends on whether China and India choose to come under the sphere of influence of America or go it alone. Should India become a strategic partner of the United States, it might create a new equation in Central Asia because the prevailing Chinese military thought can be said to be suspicious of American activity in states like Pakistan, Uzbekistan etc, which they view as an attempt to encircle Chinese influence in this region where American energy interests lie.
India wants to increase it's influence in the UN and in a multilateral setting. Her cooperation with USA on matters of nuclear despite not being a party to the Non Proliferation Treaty might prove to be a stumbling block.. -
there should be three superpowers governing the world.
but all should remain as rivals and against each other.
den they wun make stupid moves, in case the other take advantage of the situation.
from romance of three kingdoms one.
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EU, USA, East Asia?Originally posted by Ito_^:there should be three superpowers governing the world.
but all should remain as rivals and against each other.
den they wun make stupid moves, in case the other take advantage of the situation.
from romance of three kingdoms one. 
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Don't forget Russia, home of the world's second largest second nuclear arsenal.Originally posted by LazerLordz:EU, USA, East Asia? -
What fallin says it true. Russia is on the rise again. Its now just a matter Putin reuniting Russia and its lost territory. The United States will be challenged by Russia and China as well.
Whether the multi polar world is a good thing or not, we do not truly know. But remember, the last time there was more than 2 super powers, there were great wars.
The only reason we have not see massive wars like in WW1 and WW2 is that there was only 1 super power. -
and the worst reason they might go to war for is.. "for world peace."Originally posted by Shotgun:What fallin says it true. Russia is on the rise again. Its now just a matter Putin reuniting Russia and its lost territory. The United States will be challenged by Russia and China as well.
Whether the multi polar world is a good thing or not, we do not truly know. But remember, the last time there was more than 2 super powers, there were great wars.
The only reason we have not see massive wars like in WW1 and WW2 is that there was only 1 super power.
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Originally posted by Shotgun:
Actually thats not true. The only reason why we've haven't seen WW1/WW2 style wars is because nuclear arms...but thats a topic for another time.
The only reason we have not see massive wars like in WW1 and WW2 is that there was only 1 super power. -
I believe China will not follow the footsteps of the US.
Anyway they will not want to be labelled a Superpower right now or join the US in policing the world because all of US problems will fall on them too.
I think in the future there will be mainly 2. China and the US.
EU has constantly had infighting particularly France and Germany (They just can't seem to get along) Its a pretty fragile union.
Russia... much to be seen in the coming months. They suddenly switched sides probably enough of american bull crap but they intend to help Iran which could be a bad thing.
India, well there was much hype in the past but they just dont seem to be climbing as fast as China and I personally dont see them or talked about as a Superpower for the next 5 years.
China is the real potential super power. Their economy has been booming and they are undergoing major upgrading of their military which is an important step to being a super power.
I really hope in the future, the superpowers will be more careful of what they do. it will seriously suck if there is a major conflict. -
i am not sure if i agreed that multi polar is good at least not for singapore. It is a fact that multi-polar environment has more smaller wars unforseen war since every states is for self interest.
With technology evolve these smaller war does not restrict to distance in the case of 911.
i think the future geo political landscape will evolve into regions. With some region still evolving. -
i kind of dread china becoming a super power. they seem more brash than the USA. remember tiananmen square?
but it's all internal, unlike USA's external outlook -
its hard to tell what china would do to maintain Supremacy!!! remember all Giant power reach a stage where it would want to retain that supremacy and influence. How they do it is another story...so you cannot jude how the US until you have someone to compare with.
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Don't forget the Middle East guys! Saudi Arabai and Iran want to play also.
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For all of their swagger and saber-rattling, though, I think their primary focus still remains on the ROC, with a secondary interest in the Korean peninsular.Originally posted by beavan:i kind of dread china becoming a super power. they seem more brash than the USA. remember tiananmen square?
but it's all internal, unlike USA's external outlook
Even so, I doubt if they currently have the amphibious assets to take the ROC by force... but that may easily change in the near future. -
Well, a unified Korean Republic is another potential Asian power, but it depends on how the South will bleed when they have to rebuild the North.Originally posted by fudgester:For all of their swagger and saber-rattling, though, I think their primary focus still remains on the ROC, with a secondary interest in the Korean peninsular.
Even so, I doubt if they currently have the amphibious assets to take the ROC by force... but that may easily change in the near future. -
Well, by many indications, it would take a massive effort to rebuild the North should they ever reunify. The North and the South are polar opposites of each other. It would take nothing less than an effort on the scale of the Marshall Plan to rebuild the North - both economically and psychologically.Originally posted by LazerLordz:Well, a unified Korean Republic is another potential Asian power, but it depends on how the South will bleed when they have to rebuild the North.
Reuniting East and West Germany was much easier in contrast - and that wasn't really a walk in the park, either. -
Re-taking Taiwan would not take the massive seaborne landing as it would not have the surprise element. and poltical pressure from UN will set in before the PLA reach the shore of Taiwan.
The current strategy for PLA is several brigade of special forces airborne drop into capital and take out political targets secure the airport. The war will be over in 1 night. Glorious victory for the PLA who will control the communist regime....so that PLA will continue to control china instead of the new capitalist. -
JC boys.
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several brigades to air drop, sea landings?
it's quite difficult to hide like so big a force -
come again?Originally posted by iSpeak:JC boys. -
Well, US had their fair share too.. google 'Bonus Army' and 'kent University'.. I mean US had always claim the HR and moral high ground.. also do you know that US 'Shot by cop' incidents tally in the thousands a year.. and I'm talking about minor offences here.Originally posted by beavan:i kind of dread china becoming a super power. they seem more brash than the USA. remember tiananmen square?
but it's all internal, unlike USA's external outlook
And about the Tianamen incident... what would you do if you had One million anti-government rioters running around... and I sensed the west delibrately miss-reported the incident, for idealogy reason.. Communism.
The declassified US embassy cable in Beijing.. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/documents/index.html Go thru the cable reports... it coincide with what western media are reporting... but take note of Document 31.. in which it wrote..This document, as its authors state in the outset, "attempts to set the record straight" about the events of the night of June 3-4. Contrary to earlier reports in the western media, the cable asserts that many if not most of the deaths associated with the crackdown occurred on Changan Avenue and other streets surrounding the square, rather than on Tiananmen Square itself. The document calls the notion that the military could have suffered more casualties than civilians "inconceivable," but holds that "civilian deaths probably did not reach the figure of 3,000 used in some press reports," but believes that the figure put forward by the Chinese Red Cross of 2,600 military and civilian deaths with 7,000 wounded to be "not an unreasonable estimate." The cable concludes with a detailed, hour-by-hour chronology of the events of the night of June 3-4.
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BBC continues to hold yearly remembrence of the incident.. giving the impression that students were massacre inside the square.. which is false.. CNN and BBC made no attempts to rectified their errors, (Washington Post did),.. but continues to propaganda it so...
And why does the Tianamen Square incident is considered Brash, when you are talking about super-power logic, which is more of international consideration.. In this aspect, US seemed brasher many times over... what they did to third world latin-american countries for resources, bananas, Sugarcanes and control of canal are all military related adventures... and Iraq too. -
something interesting..
"Total, the French state oil company, names Wolfowitz to a new international advisory board. Other members of the board include former high-level officials of France, Japan, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Russia, OPEC, Venezuela, and the United Nations. “We are grateful to all of the Board Members for their valuable advice on political, economic and technological issues that affect us in today's rapidly changing world,” reads a Total report to shareholders"
This was in 1994. As you all know, Wolfowitz belongs to the Project for a New American Century. -
Are you implying that is wrong for a person to work for his nation's continued dominance? I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody wants their country to fall from a superpower to a mere second rate one.Originally posted by LazerLordz:something interesting..
"Total, the French state oil company, names Wolfowitz to a new international advisory board. Other members of the board include former high-level officials of France, Japan, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Russia, OPEC, Venezuela, and the United Nations. “We are grateful to all of the Board Members for their valuable advice on political, economic and technological issues that affect us in today's rapidly changing world,” reads a Total report to shareholders"
This was in 1994. As you all know, Wolfowitz belongs to the Project for a New American Century.