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Flashpoint: Middle East

Shotgun
16 Aug 06, 14:21

I think the scope of the recent Israel-Hezbollah "engagement" has expanded out of Lebanon. This thread will deal with further updates on the middle east situation.

Latest news:

Israel Finds Evidence That Syria, Iran Arm Hezbollah With Russian Weapons

Mosnews
Wed, 16 Aug 2006, 01:04

http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/Israel_Finds_Evidence_That_Syria_Iran_Arm_Hezbollah_With_Russian_Weapons.php

This is the first hard evidence officially linking Syrian arms to Hezbollah, dug up by the Israelis since the conflict began. There is a possibility of further conflict between Syria, Iran, (Hezbollah) and Israel, and very highly likely, involvment of US Forces in the region.
Shotgun
5 Sep 06, 02:28

800 to 1 Prisoner swap. I'm sure u guys read it on Straits Times.

What are the chances you think the soldier is still alive?

What if he's not? Will there be another war? Would Israeli public opinion of the war be diverted against their own govt for a moment in anger of the soldier's death?

Being a pessimist, I suspect that Israeli govt probably thinks he's dead too. And a sudden offer of such a prisoner exchange may well be calling Hezbollah's bluff. It will probably allow Israel to justify an extension to the siege of Lebanon. At the same time, the death of a kidnapped soldier might be in Olmert's favor.
BillyBong
5 Sep 06, 08:37

Originally posted by Shotgun:
800 to 1 Prisoner swap. I'm sure u guys read it on Straits Times.

What are the chances you think the soldier is still alive?

What if he's not? Will there be another war? Would Israeli public opinion of the war be diverted against their own govt for a moment in anger of the soldier's death?

Being a pessimist, I suspect that Israeli govt probably thinks he's dead too. And a sudden offer of such a prisoner exchange may well be calling Hezbollah's bluff. It will probably allow Israel to justify an extension to the siege of Lebanon. At the same time, the death of a kidnapped soldier might be in Olmert's favor.
What i fail to gather is the absolute failure of Israel's 'rescue' plan.

It does seem the well-oiled Zahal is losing its touch. From being the feared and relentless war machine, it has become trapped in a quagmire of terrorist propaganda that threatens to belittle their famed exploits of the past.

Israel totally failed to cut off the escape route of the kidnappers, failed to locate and rescue their comrades, basically they failed all their primary objectives. And at some point, sensing the soldier slipping from their grasp, they deviated their strategy to migrate to an all-out offensive against Hizbollah.

And even that conflict showed significant shortcomings in their doctrines. Their intelligence failed to pinpoint proper targets to such an extent that their own pilots refused to fire on what were obvious civilian targets.

I'm not even sure they had a plan to snatch their man back.
|-|05|
5 Sep 06, 13:26

Originally posted by BillyBong:
What i fail to gather is the absolute failure of Israel's 'rescue' plan.

It does seem the well-oiled Zahal is losing its touch. From being the feared and relentless war machine, it has become trapped in a quagmire of terrorist propaganda that threatens to belittle their famed exploits of the past.

Israel totally failed to cut off the escape route of the kidnappers, failed to locate and rescue their comrades, basically they failed all their primary objectives. And at some point, sensing the soldier slipping from their grasp, they deviated their strategy to migrate to an all-out offensive against Hizbollah.

And even that conflict showed significant shortcomings in their doctrines. Their intelligence failed to pinpoint proper targets to such an extent that their own pilots refused to fire on what were obvious civilian targets.

I'm not even sure they had a plan to snatch their man back.
i guess once in awhille they needed a reminded not to sit on their laurals
fudgester
5 Sep 06, 13:35

Originally posted by BillyBong:
What i fail to gather is the absolute failure of Israel's 'rescue' plan.

It does seem the well-oiled Zahal is losing its touch. From being the feared and relentless war machine, it has become trapped in a quagmire of terrorist propaganda that threatens to belittle their famed exploits of the past.

Israel totally failed to cut off the escape route of the kidnappers, failed to locate and rescue their comrades, basically they failed all their primary objectives. And at some point, sensing the soldier slipping from their grasp, they deviated their strategy to migrate to an all-out offensive against Hizbollah.

And even that conflict showed significant shortcomings in their doctrines. Their intelligence failed to pinpoint proper targets to such an extent that their own pilots refused to fire on what were obvious civilian targets.

I'm not even sure they had a plan to snatch their man back.
The Israelis have always wanted to destroy Hezbollah once and for all. And the way I see it, the kidnapping of the corporal happened to provide a strong pretext for invading Lebanon and engaging Hezbollah head-on.

Otherwise, I don't see how they're going to convince their own people as well as the world of the necessity of violating another country's sovereignity without a good enough pretext. With the kidnapping though, it's far easier to tell their people that 'we're getting that boy back' and to tell the world of the danger of Hezbollah.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not condoning what Hezbollah did. It was an act of cowardice on their part to be kidnapping people and hiding among the civillian populace. However, the way I see it, rescuing the corporal became secondary to destroying Hezbollah - and the Israelis failed on both counts.