While China Ramps Up
China is accelerating the development of its military power on almost every front, particularly in intercontinental ballistic missiles, the Pentagon said in May.
In its annual assessment of China’s military power, required by Congress, the Defense Department confessed to being “surprised” at “the pace and scope of [China’s] strategic forces modernization,” which features several new classes of missiles with ranges that can reach the United States.
Overall, “China’s military expansion is already such as to alter regional military balances. Long-term trends in China’s strategic nuclear forces modernization, land- and sea-based access denial capabilities, and emerging precision-strike weapons have the potential to pose credible threats to modern militaries operating in the region,” according to the report, prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
The Pentagon said China is the one country that could reasonably “compete militarily with the United States.”
As the Pentagon has noted before, China continues to be secretive about its plans and ambitions and has “yet to adequately explain the purposes or desired end-states of [its] military expansion.” The Pentagon pegs China’s defense spending at between $70 billion and $105 billion in 2006, or up to three times China’s own stated figures. (See “Aerospace World: China Boosts Arms Budget,” May, p. 25.) China’s defense budget has continued to increase by double-digit percentage points annually since the early 1990s, and the Defense Intelligence Agency estimates China’s military budget will triple by 2025.
While its annual defense budget is substantially less than that spent by the US, ChinaÂ’s personnel pay and support costs are sharply lower than those of the US or other Western militaries, allowing most of the expenditure to go toward procurement of hardware.
In the document, DOD noted that China continues to pile up combat aircraft and tactical missiles directly across the Taiwan Strait from Taiwan, which it continues to claim as part of its territory. China frequently practices a wide range of amphibious attack techniques in large-scale exercises, the Pentagon said.
“China’s military buildup appears focused on preparing for Taiwan Strait contingencies, including the possibility of US intervention,” according to the white paper. DOD noted that many of China’s military advances are aimed at being able to “interdict, at long ranges, aircraft carrier and expeditionary strike groups that might deploy to the western Pacific.”
However, the buildup also will give China wider options in “conflicts over resources or territory.” The Pentagon noted that China’s appetite for energy resources—oil and coal—is already voracious, and the military buildup may be aimed in part at “securing” either vital sea-lanes of supply or communication, “or key geostrategic terrain.”
In the Cold War-style showdown with Taiwan, the balance of forces is “shifting in the mainland’s favor,” the Pentagon said. China has deployed nearly 800 short-range tactical ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan and adds about another 100 every year. China has deployed about 400,000 troops opposite Taiwan, or about 25,000 more than last year.
Its new strategic missiles, the DF-31 and DF-31A, are solid-fueled and road-mobile, making them more survivable against a first strike, and the latter missile can cover most of the US. A similar new submarine-based missile, called the JL-2, is in advanced development.
China has deployed more than 700 advanced combat aircraft in the region of Taiwan and is continuing to acquire advanced Su-27 Flanker derivative types from Russia, build its own versions under license, and develop its own indigenous combat aircraft.
DOD seemed to offer a re-assessment of the capabilities of China’s F-10 fighter, which it previously had compared to the F-16 Block 30. (See “Washington Watch: Chinese Military Is Catching Up—Fast,” September 2005, p. 12.) In this latest version of the annual China report, the Pentagon said the F-10 is probably more comparable to the Eurofighter Typhoon and French Rafale, considered among the top three fighters in the world today, after the US F-22A. The Pentagon expects more than 1,200 F-10s will be built, and improved versions—the F-10A and “Super-10”—are in advanced development.
China also is improving its night and all-weather maritime strike capability, although the Defense Department still is not sure if a Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier purchased from Russia in the 1990s will be fitted for naval use, used as a floating museum, or, as the Chinese claim, turned into a floating casino.
Besides the combat aircraft, China is proceeding with reconfiguring Russian airlifters into airborne warning and control platforms and intelligence collection sensor aircraft. Some 40 Il-76 transports are being bought from Russia, along with eight Il-78 Midas air refueling aircraft.
The first battalion of Russian-made S-300PMU-2 air defense systems, considered the most formidable in the world, will be operational in China this year, with “an advertised intercept range of 200 km.” Besides offering improved capability against tactical ballistic missiles, the S-300 has “more effective electronic countermeasures” than any previous types.
The PeopleÂ’s Liberation Army is downsizing, having cut 200,000 from its ranks in recent years. The PLA goal is to have a smaller but better-qualified military, the Pentagon said. The PLA will number about 2.3 million active forces when the downsizing is done, by ChinaÂ’s own accounting, but could expand to 4.6 million with active, reserve, and paramilitary units called up. ChinaÂ’s 2004 defense white paper boasted an ability to call up more than 10 million organized militia members.
A key issue coming to a head is whether the European Union will lift its embargo on selling military technology to China, the Pentagon said. If it does, DOD thinks China will move to establish joint ventures with military counterparts in Europe, toward acquiring “advanced space technology, radar systems, early warning aircraft, submarine technology, and advanced electronic components for precision guided weapons systems.”
DOD thinks the EU will lift the embargo, imposed after the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, because China offers a potentially lucrative military market, and the EU has stated that lifting the ban wouldn’t radically alter Beijing’s military capabilities. The Pentagon warned, however, that the EU might be defeating its own policies, because China’s history of third-party arms transfers could mean European weapons technology could go to Iran, Myanmar, Sudan, and Zimbabwe—all countries that China sells weapons to and that are themselves the subject of EU arms embargoes.
Is this the same group that say that the Mig-25 "Foxbat" is super-doper fighter and managed to convince congress to approve the budget to buy the F-15 "Eagle"Originally posted by coolant:Surprisingly, US Department of Defense ( DoD) has made its assessment of Chinese built J10 ( Nato code: F10) by declaring itÂ’s more comparable to European built Rafale and EF2000 fighter rather than earlier estimated F16 BLK20/30. See the Air-force Magazine online report:
http://www.afa.org/magazine/July2006/0706watch.asp