Why China will not want to see a unified Korea at its doorst
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Why China will not want to see a unified Korea at its doorstep
During the recent China-Japan-South Korea summit at Jeju island, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed his support for the eventual unification of the two Koreas when South Korea President Lee Myung-bak said his country’s goal is to get North Korea to open up its economy and strive toward peaceful reunification through that process.
Wen’s pledge of support seems to contradict China’s official policy towards North Korea regime which has been on Chinese life-support for over a decade since a series of famines wrecked the economy of the Stalinist state in the 1990s.
Above: North Koreans pay their respect to their “Great Leader” Kim Il-Sung whose statue towers over the capital Pyongyang.
Without China’s generous aid and support, Pyongyang would grow increasingly dependent on South Korea thereby paving the way for eventual dialogue and reunification between the two sides.
The rising tension in the Korean peninsula today is caused partly by China’s reluctance to rein in the excesses of North Korea from its blatant refusal to return to the six-party talks and its periodic schizophrenic outbursts against the south.
Despite evidence pointing to North Korea’s involvement in the sinking of the South Korean corvette “Cheonan”, China has refused to express a clear stance in the matter, calling for both parties to “exercise restraint”.
A few days earlier, the North’s “Dear Leader’ Kim Jong-IL had travelled to Beijing probably to secure economic assistance from China again after its botched currency reform in the beginning of the year.
China’s undivided loyalty to its communist ally is a crucial factor in keeping the latter from a much feared self-implosion which would have accelerated the pace of re-unification.
A paper published in May by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, written by two American academics, Bonnie Glaser and Scott Snyder, details the possible consequences in the event of a regime collapse in North korea: refugees pouring into China and South Korea, insecure weapons of mass destruction and the threat of uncoordinated military actions taken in North Korea by South Korea, China and America.
Though it was never mentioned publicly, few leaders in Beijing would relish the prospect of a unified Korea right on China’s doorsteps which would disrupt the power-balance in Northeast Asia.
China prefers to have a weak North Korea perennially dependent on it for handouts as a neighbor and a buffer against the prosperous South and its American ally rather than a unified Korean nation which is both economically and militarily strong.
In less than five decades, South Korea managed to recover from the destruction brought about by the Korean War and transformed itself into an economic powerhouse in the world.
If South Korea were to unite with the North, it would come to the possession of a one-million strong army and a nuclear arsenal, a scenario which Beijing will want to pre-empt from occuring.
China’s innermost fears and insecurities of the reunification of Korea and the subsequent emergence of a strong Korean state stem partly from historical rivalry and animosities between the two nations.
Above: At the height of its power, Gorguryeo occupied two-thirds of the Korean peninsula and large chunks of Manchuria including today’s Liaoning and Jilin provinces in China. Korea’s English name is derived from Gorguryeo.
In the first millenium, China was in constant conflict with two powerful Korean states on its northeastern frontier. The Sui dynasty fought three disastrous wars with the Korean kingdom of Gorguryeo which eventually led to its downfall.
The succeeding Tang dynasty only managed to conquer Gorguryeo after three unsuccessful attempts with the loss of millions of lives. Even then, its attempt to govern the Korean peninsula was short-lived with another Korean state Balhae emerging from the ruins of Gorguryeo to challenge its supremacy in the Northeast.
The relationship between the two countries only start to normalize during the Joseon dynasty when Korea effectively became a vassal state of the Ming dynasty after it relinquished all claims to the lands north of the Yalu river.
China’s northeast is home to a significant number of ethnic Koreans, most of them residing in the Yanbian autonomous county bordering North Korea.
Above: The Chinese city of Yanji near North Korea. Notice that the road signs are in both Chinese and Korean as mandated under the city’s law.
While a rising proportion of the Korean population has been effectively sinicized over the years thanks to some shrewd government policies, the situation may change with a prosperous Korea as its neighbor rather than the present improverished North.
Increased exchange between the two sides may spark off separatist tendencies in areas with a Korean majority such as the “Gando” corridor which is still viewed by some Korean historians as an inseparable part of Korea.
Many Korean heritage sites and relics are found there such as the famous Goguryeo wall murals and the Gwanggaeto Steele in the border town of Ji’an along the Tumen river.
Above: The famous Gorguryeo wall murals found in Ji’an, Jilin province. Ji’an was a former capital of the Korean kingdom of Gorguryeo, known then as Guknae.
With trouble brewing in Tibet and Xinjiang, Beijing will not risk starting a fire in its own backyard especially when the three northeast provinces have been ear-marked for economic development as part of a greater plan to revive China’s industrial dustbelt.
A weak and dependent North Korea will not only help to secure its own borders, but will come in handy as a useful pawn to check on South Korea as well in order to maintain the strategic equilibrium in Northeast Asia.
TEMASEK REVIEW
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the answer here is simple, if China agreed to a united korea, game over liao. For China, N korea is an ally that help to strike the balance of forces between the east and west, China can be clean and open all front, but a word or two to Kim to do something can tilt the balance of negiotation and power in both economy and political front.
China will never want a united korea, because N korea is a big chip for them
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Wrong, China still think that geological buffer zone is needed.
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Depends on whether the unified korea is partner of China, ally of U.S or allied with Japan.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
the answer here is simple, if China agreed to a united korea, game over liao. For China, N korea is an ally that help to strike the balance of forces between the east and west, China can be clean and open all front, but a word or two to Kim to do something can tilt the balance of negiotation and power in both economy and political front.
China will never want a united korea, because N korea is a big chip for them
As mention in many threads you should read up before you post certain topics.
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Originally posted by Wmyongj:
Wrong, China still think that geological buffer zone is needed.
Yes partially right....
The perspective of China learned from the WWII is slightly different than the rest of S.E.A. and Western countries. It actually goes much deeper than 1941. Perharps it goes as far as 1894 where Japanese soldier defeated Chinese resistance at pyongyang.
2nd World War in the Far East was not One War, But Two Wars.
China view the war started in 1931 - 1937. As compared to Dec 1941. Japanese offiensive against Manchuria. 1931- 32, Thereafter encroachment onto China Terroritory and fought all the way until Japanese surrender.
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Originally posted by CheckmateA1:
Why China will not want to see a unified Korea at its doorstep
During the recent China-Japan-South Korea summit at Jeju island, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed his support for the eventual unification of the two Koreas when South Korea President Lee Myung-bak said his country’s goal is to get North Korea to open up its economy and strive toward peaceful reunification through that process.
Wen’s pledge of support seems to contradict China’s official policy towards North Korea regime which has been on Chinese life-support for over a decade since a series of famines wrecked the economy of the Stalinist state in the 1990s.
Above: North Koreans pay their respect to their “Great Leader” Kim Il-Sung whose statue towers over the capital Pyongyang.
Without China’s generous aid and support, Pyongyang would grow increasingly dependent on South Korea thereby paving the way for eventual dialogue and reunification between the two sides.
The rising tension in the Korean peninsula today is caused partly by China’s reluctance to rein in the excesses of North Korea from its blatant refusal to return to the six-party talks and its periodic schizophrenic outbursts against the south.
Despite evidence pointing to North Korea’s involvement in the sinking of the South Korean corvette “Cheonan”, China has refused to express a clear stance in the matter, calling for both parties to “exercise restraint”.
A few days earlier, the North’s “Dear Leader’ Kim Jong-IL had travelled to Beijing probably to secure economic assistance from China again after its botched currency reform in the beginning of the year.
China’s undivided loyalty to its communist ally is a crucial factor in keeping the latter from a much feared self-implosion which would have accelerated the pace of re-unification.
A paper published in May by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, written by two American academics, Bonnie Glaser and Scott Snyder, details the possible consequences in the event of a regime collapse in North korea: refugees pouring into China and South Korea, insecure weapons of mass destruction and the threat of uncoordinated military actions taken in North Korea by South Korea, China and America.
Though it was never mentioned publicly, few leaders in Beijing would relish the prospect of a unified Korea right on China’s doorsteps which would disrupt the power-balance in Northeast Asia.
China prefers to have a weak North Korea perennially dependent on it for handouts as a neighbor and a buffer against the prosperous South and its American ally rather than a unified Korean nation which is both economically and militarily strong.
In less than five decades, South Korea managed to recover from the destruction brought about by the Korean War and transformed itself into an economic powerhouse in the world.
If South Korea were to unite with the North, it would come to the possession of a one-million strong army and a nuclear arsenal, a scenario which Beijing will want to pre-empt from occuring.
China’s innermost fears and insecurities of the reunification of Korea and the subsequent emergence of a strong Korean state stem partly from historical rivalry and animosities between the two nations.
Above: At the height of its power, Gorguryeo occupied two-thirds of the Korean peninsula and large chunks of Manchuria including today’s Liaoning and Jilin provinces in China. Korea’s English name is derived from Gorguryeo.
In the first millenium, China was in constant conflict with two powerful Korean states on its northeastern frontier. The Sui dynasty fought three disastrous wars with the Korean kingdom of Gorguryeo which eventually led to its downfall.
The succeeding Tang dynasty only managed to conquer Gorguryeo after three unsuccessful attempts with the loss of millions of lives. Even then, its attempt to govern the Korean peninsula was short-lived with another Korean state Balhae emerging from the ruins of Gorguryeo to challenge its supremacy in the Northeast.
The relationship between the two countries only start to normalize during the Joseon dynasty when Korea effectively became a vassal state of the Ming dynasty after it relinquished all claims to the lands north of the Yalu river.
China’s northeast is home to a significant number of ethnic Koreans, most of them residing in the Yanbian autonomous county bordering North Korea.
Above: The Chinese city of Yanji near North Korea. Notice that the road signs are in both Chinese and Korean as mandated under the city’s law.
While a rising proportion of the Korean population has been effectively sinicized over the years thanks to some shrewd government policies, the situation may change with a prosperous Korea as its neighbor rather than the present improverished North.
Increased exchange between the two sides may spark off separatist tendencies in areas with a Korean majority such as the “Gando” corridor which is still viewed by some Korean historians as an inseparable part of Korea.
Many Korean heritage sites and relics are found there such as the famous Goguryeo wall murals and the Gwanggaeto Steele in the border town of Ji’an along the Tumen river.
Above: The famous Gorguryeo wall murals found in Ji’an, Jilin province. Ji’an was a former capital of the Korean kingdom of Gorguryeo, known then as Guknae.
With trouble brewing in Tibet and Xinjiang, Beijing will not risk starting a fire in its own backyard especially when the three northeast provinces have been ear-marked for economic development as part of a greater plan to revive China’s industrial dustbelt.
A weak and dependent North Korea will not only help to secure its own borders, but will come in handy as a useful pawn to check on South Korea as well in order to maintain the strategic equilibrium in Northeast Asia.
TEMASEK REVIEW
TS ,
I find the article perspective perhaps narrow views on China.
If you read todays paper you See WEN JIABO has his picture taken with the General of Myanmar Military Junta. Who now has been accused of collaborating with North Korea on Nukes.
Whats more coincidentally today is the first day of Defence Dialogue in Singapore. A symbolic and timely message well intended for its audience.
China continue to view Myanmar as its strategic position since WWII where supplies were brought into China thru Burma to fought against Japanese.
A dilemma for countries that stretch from India to South Korea and Japan.
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As with Arapahoe, I don't understand the Temasek Review article. China's relationships with its neighbors, due to trade, is becoming more complex than just history can tell. The Chinese game industry, for example, is built with much cooperation with South Korea.
North Korea recent irrationality has also been driving China nuts. In the event where North Korea gets desperate, Temasek Review assumes it will "implode." What if it doesn't and gets even more "irrationale?" How will it endanger the regional trade?
Temasek Review also assume that after unification, the "united Korea" with side with U.S. Really? How that uncle Sam is broke, who looks like a more profitable partner?
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Korea divided (1945)
At the Potsdam Conference (July–August 1945), the Allies unilaterally decided to divide Korea—without consulting the Koreans—in contradiction of the Cairo Conference.[30
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#Korea_divided_.281945.29
By 1950 international recognition of the Communist government had increased considerably, but it was slowed by China's involvement in the Korean War. In October 1950, sensing a threat to the industrial heartland in northeast China from the advancing United Nations (UN) forces in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), units of the PLA--calling themselves the Chinese People's Volunteers--crossed the YaluJiang River into North Korea in response to a North Korean request for aid. Almost simultaneously the PLA forces also marched into Xizang to reassert Chinese sovereignty over a region that had been in effect independent of Chinese rule since the fall of the Qing dynasty in 1911.
http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/prc.html
THEY WOULD RETALIATED, WHEN YOU CROSSED THEIR BORDER.
THEY NEED PLENTLY OF NATURAL RESOURCES FOR THEIR OWN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
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During the recent China-Japan-South Korea summit at Jeju island, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed his support for the eventual unification of the two Koreas when South Korea President Lee Myung-bak said his country’s goal is to get North Korea to open up its economy and strive toward peaceful reunification through that process.
7. Japan and NK are enemies. * If North Korea does not end its nuclear weapons program, Japan could decide it wants one. That, of course, is China's nightmare -- so it would be in China's interest to help convince NK to stop its nuclear weapons program. ...now.
http://gretawire.blogs.foxnews.com/north-korea-and-united-states-china-help/
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Originally posted by CrazyWorld:
As with Arapahoe, I don't understand the Temasek Review article. China's relationships with its neighbors, due to trade, is becoming more complex than just history can tell. The Chinese game industry, for example, is built with much cooperation with South Korea.
North Korea recent irrationality has also been driving China nuts. In the event where North Korea gets desperate, Temasek Review assumes it will "implode." What if it doesn't and gets even more "irrationale?" How will it endanger the regional trade?
Temasek Review also assume that after unification, the "united Korea" with side with U.S. Really? How that uncle Sam is broke, who looks like a more profitable partner?
Do not get confuse over the different between Trade policy vs Strategic Defence Policy. The last 30 decade may have improve relation betweens nations over trade and economics growth, but it does not negate the policy of ambiguity over strategic states.
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Originally posted by CheckmateA1:
During the recent China-Japan-South Korea summit at Jeju island, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed his support for the eventual unification of the two Koreas when South Korea President Lee Myung-bak said his country’s goal is to get North Korea to open up its economy and strive toward peaceful reunification through that process.
7. Japan and NK are enemies. * If North Korea does not end its nuclear weapons program, Japan could decide it wants one. That, of course, is China's nightmare -- so it would be in China's interest to help convince NK to stop its nuclear weapons program. ...now.
http://gretawire.blogs.foxnews.com/north-korea-and-united-states-china-help/
Personnally, I think that is as far as it gets from the chinese side to verbally agreed in principle.
However i do not believe China would feel comfortable to see a Unifying Korean Nationalism in the North East corridor.
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Is good for N korea for Unified Korea. same like Msia should merge with Spore so we can compete better with the help of better talents from our neighbour Spore
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Originally posted by angel7030:
the answer here is simple, if China agreed to a united korea, game over liao. For China, N korea is an ally that help to strike the balance of forces between the east and west, China can be clean and open all front, but a word or two to Kim to do something can tilt the balance of negiotation and power in both economy and political front.
China will never want a united korea, because N korea is a big chip for them
Nothing to do with arcade games, "Game Over".China will not want to see an American hegemony.
An American troops right up the Yellow River will tilt the balancing of power of China, Russia, Korea, Japan and even far away as India.
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Originally posted by 4sg:
Nothing to do with arcade games, "Game Over".China will not want to see an American hegemony.
An American troops right up the Yellow River will tilt the balancing of power of China, Russia, Korea, Japan and even far away as India.
and furthermore, china in its economy advancement, needs alot of natural resources, and N korea is one of them providing some of these resources, the others are mynamar and vietnam. -
There are a number of flaws in the article’s argument. The writer assumes absurdly that “without China’s generous aid and support, Pyongyang would grow increasingly dependent on South Korea thereby paving the way for eventual dialogue and reunification between the two sides”. The opposite result may turn out to be true. Without China’s generous aid and support, North Korea may feel cornered like a wounded tiger and may be forced into taking desperate action against the South instead.
It seems that the writer assumes that China has absolute control over the North Korean regime to keep the two Koreas permanently apart. Unlike the ancient Greek gods of Mount Olympus, the Chinese leaders have no power to play with poor mortals like playing with houseflies. They have no power over the North Korean regime to divide the Korean people forever. This is evident in their powerlessness to rein in the North Korean regime when North Korea carried out numerous attacks and sabotage activities against the South since the division of the Korean peninsula.
Calling North Korea “weak and dependent”, the writer is obviously sleeping and does not know that the real Zeus who can really decide the fate of Korea is not China but the “Dear Leader”. Even if China really does not want to see a unified Korea at its doorstep, it can’t do anything if the North Korean leader takes action to reunite with the South by force or otherwise. Neither can China do anything to stop him if he launches another Korean War or even triggers a world war.
However, I admire the South Koreans' desire to reunite with North Korea even though many of their relatives and friends were slaughtered mercilessly by their northern counterparts during the Korean War. This is unlike the attitude and behavior of the Chinese descendants in Taiwan.
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Is good for the korean to be united just like the German decades ago.
Is good to have Taiwan come under China to form the greater china which already unite HK and Macau.
Korean has been good ally of China since historical b4 they split. Even last time when japan want to pay tribute to China, also must go thru Korean. Japan was lucky 3 times when the Mongolian King fail in his few attempt to invade Japan due to typhoon. If not, japan may now be under China. who know, Korea too? Look at Vietnam, Thailand, Mymaar....they have some similarity in practises /languages/ cultures with the Chinese too
If all these combine, the china will be a strong formidable force now ( China+ korea+japan+Hk+macau+ Taiwan).....
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
As mention in many threads you should read up before you post certain topics.
She does not give a heck about reading up. All she wants is to come here to pour out all her rubbish.
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
As mention in many threads you should read up before you post certain topics.
read up!!! so everything also need to read up, cannot use your IQ and common sense meh,...so if your mother intro you a girl,...u also go read up first ar??? Mai Siao lah. -
Originally posted by hasene:
She does not give a heck about reading up. All she wants is to come here to pour out all her rubbish.
better than you give nothing....run!!! -
Originally posted by angel7030:
read up!!! so everything also need to read up, cannot use your IQ and common sense meh,...so if your mother intro you a girl,...u also go read up first ar??? Mai Siao lah.You only have coconut sense you got no common sense.
You only know how to shit here and there.
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VIDEO North Korean refugees in China’s Yanbian autonomous county
Background
The video below was taken in 2007 before the Beijing Olympics. The situation in North Korea is likely to be worse now following its botched currency reform in January this year. China regards the North Korean refugees as economic migrants and deny the United Nations High Commission for Refugees access to them, more than 70 percent of whom are women.Pyongyang tries to save face
By Takashi Yokota from Newsweek
The two Koreas seemed headed for a dangerous collision ever since international investigators determined that North Korea had torpedoed its Southern neighbor’s warship Cheonan.
The North’s National Defence Commission called the investigations a “farce” and threatened “all-out war” if Seoul and the international community imposed sanctions.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak responded by promising to push for sanctions at the United Nations, to cut off trade with the North, and to resume anti-North propaganda along the demilitarized zone. Adding to the alarm, four North Korean submarines left a naval base along the Sea of Japan, putting the South Korean Navy on high alert.
This fracas may not be all it seems, however; because North Korean leader Kim Jong-il seems to be seeking a face-saving way out.
Even as the North’s fire-breathing generals threatened war, the political leadership is adopting a more diplomatic, if not quite conciliatory, tone.
The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, which claimed to be speaking on behalf of the entire government, said it would react to sanctions by freezing inter-Korean relations, as well as scrapping the North-South non-aggression agreement.
The Foreign Ministry also issued a statement dedicated mostly to blasting the United States, but ending with a claim that its broad aim remains to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
Translation: the softer side of Kim Jong-Il’s regime wants out of this mess.
Seoul, which wants to ease tensions before hosting the G20 summit this fall, made sure to offer the North a way out. In his statement, Lee demanded that Pyongyang “apologize and punish those responsible for the attack,” laying down relatively easy terms for the North to resolve the conflict.
Pyongyang may be preparing to comply. Even before the North was officially blamed for sinking the Cheonan, the National Defence Commission dimissed Kim Il-chol, its highest-ranking naval officer, citing his “old age.”
Kim is said to be in his late 70s, but so are many commission members. Observers speculate that Pyongyang may cite Kim’s dismissal to claim it has already punished the man responsible, and perhaps to set the stage of an apology.
Kenneth Quinones, a former State Department negotiator and a Korean expert, says a “similar dynamic” guided North Korea’s response when one of its submarines infiltrated South Korean territorial waters in 1996.
Ultimately, moderate elements in Pyongyang persuaded the military hardliners to apologize. And Pyongyang’s declaration that it will no longer deal with the South while Lee is in office may be read as a call to China to step in and mediate.
Far from escalating, says Quinones, Pyongyang officials “seem to be trying to keep some hope open for negotiations.”
As long Kim can do so without looking weak, he seems to be serious about finding a way out.
Source: Newsweek
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If the 2 Korea unite it would push Japan to develop nuclear weapons to protect itself.
That is the main concern.
China doesn't want that, the USA doesn't want that.
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Originally posted by Arapahoe:
You only have coconut sense you got no common sense.
You only know how to shit here and there.
coconut??? hey, dude,.. coconut makes that aunty selling katong laksa very rich leh...so dun underestimate coconut hor...it can do wonder to make you rich and famous -
Originally posted by Stevenson101:
If the 2 Korea unite it would push Japan to develop nuclear weapons to protect itself.
That is the main concern.
China doesn't want that, the USA doesn't want that.
Then if the 2 koreans and japan get united, then Taiwan, my motherland, will be in great danger...