The chance that civil war in Thailand could break out is now slim because Thaksin's power is waning. 2 months ago I hardly thought this was possible.
1. Thaksin is now a fugitive. His past attempts through Pro-Thaksin MPs to amend the constitutions in order to undo his corruption charge failed miserably.
2. Britain, Japan, and China have slapped entry ban on Thaksin Shinawatra so he has fewer places to stage political manouvre and propaganda.
3. The Global Economic Meltdown is a threat to the Thai economy but somehow a boon to the country's political stability. Billionaires around the world, including Thaksin, have lost a lot of money. By nature, Thaksin has faith in stock markets and all kinds of risky investments. So he must have lost a lot too.
4. To Thaksin's surprise, Britain is believed to have frozen Thaksin's assets worth a billion dollar, waiting Thaksin to submit proof of the sources of these funds. Who believes Thaksin is able to give a proof? Thaksin is probably the only billionaire who dodged the 1997 financial crisis uninjured and even got richer big time from insider information on Baht depreciation because 2 of the economic ministers leaked it to him.
5. The Red Shirt People or the National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) are in disarray and breaking up. Infighting is now everyday. These people, composing of many factions, usually compete ato propose "projects" for political movement, anti-government and anti-monarchy propaganda to Thaksin in exchange for Thaksin's funding. But so far these "projects" have failed while Thaksin's wealth is being hit hard by the global crisis. So the competition among the factions in UDD for money is getting uglier.
6. The latest news of a republican movement leader Giles Ji Ungpakorn fleeing Lese-Majeste charge to Britain (he carries British passport) is a big blow to Thaksin. Why?

Giles Ungpakorn, a half-Chinese and half-British Thai

This picture showing him and Pro-Thaksin UDD Leader Jakkrapop Penkair hugging each other on stage to show their unity. Jakkapop Penkair himself is also being charged on lese-majeste too.

Thaksin now finds it hard for him to distance himself from the long-time rumour that he wants to overthrow the monarchy and become the 1st President of the Republic of Thailand.
Meanwhile, the Republican Movement is in disarray. One of its members is very upset about Giles Ungpakorn's selfish escape to Britain, leaving behind his long time friends and fellows at risk of jail sentences! Below is a link to the news on a Pro-Thaksin online newspaper, Prachatouch. Unfortunately, the detail is in Thai only.
http://www.prachatouch.com/content.php?id=17817
7. It is true that most poor Thais loved Thaksin but only when he churned out populist loan and continuous propaganda. However, in light of his faltering wealth to fund the propaganda and UDD breaking up, the poor are slowly and slowing forgetting Thaksin.
I would like to tell you that not all of educated Thais, falsely regarded by most complacent western media as "elite", are loyal to the Monarchy. But when they need to choose between Monarchy and Presidium (Thaksin or whoever), they would rather go for the former one than risk descending into anarchy!